Bambi Francisco on belief vs. capitulation

Date: Tue Mar 13 2001 - 09:18:37 PST

Bambi's commentary seems to have improved. If I'm not mistaken, this actually makes sense.

Deep depression is capitulation; we're not there yet. No one has yet to give up fully on the buy-on-the-dip strategy. And in my informal and small survey of individual investors, 60 percent said they'd look for bargains in the current environment.

Investors are also unclear as to the magnitude of the drop in earnings and they're willing to bet it's less severe than it really is. I would say the market is in the "bargaining" stages, when there is a bit of denial and a certain level of depression. It's when there is still optimism the current situation will reverse itself and get back to normal by just making a few adjustments such as rate cuts and cost-cutting initiatives. ISI points out that the bullish camp of investors describe the current malaise as a "brief inventory cycle."

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