On the contrary, a company that could be out of business in six months
shouldn't be privately held.
Since capital markets allow one to diversify by making many small plays, or to
make large plays seem small by trading with enough capital (institutions),
public investors should value a business at its expectation value, the mean of
On the other hand, if the company represents a large portion of the owners'
net worth, they should instead value the business at its most likely value,
the mode of possible outcomes.
In this case, the company may be out of business in six months, so many of the
outcomes involve loss. However, since it was valuable as a going concern even
to the original owners, there must be a few outcomes involving great gain.
With that skewed distribution, the mean will be greater than the mode, and
therefore a public offering at a price between the two benefits all parties.