Gilder disses Nextlink & Teligent for TeraBeam

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From: Adam Rifkin -4K (
Date: Mon Apr 24 2000 - 18:19:58 PDT

Looks like people were dumping MSFT shares today in the mid 60's.
Recall that Microsoft was in the 40's when the DoJ trial started in '98.
60's seems great compared with 40's, but awful compared with MSFT's all
time high of 120. An astonishing 157 million shares of Microsoft traded
today; I think that's a new record.

They're not really going to break up Microsoft... are they?

Microsoft is now worth less than Intel and Cisco, and Beberg can
probably confirm this, but thanks to BillG's charitable donation of $20
billion of MSFT shares, he now owns less in MSFT than LarryE owns in
ORCL, which strangely enough was up today and has barely sold off 20% in
the tech crash.

With MSFT at a fresh 52-week low, I'm guessing that all options priced
last year are underwater. So Microsoft and Nextlink are two Seattle
supercompanies whose stocks are selling at half their all-time highs,
but at least NXLK is still selling at twice its 52-week low. Why did
Nextlink get smacked today? Two words: George Gilder.

Far be it from me to expect George Gilder not to buy into the hype
surrounding TeraBeam, but does he have to drop Nextlink and Teligent
from his picklist in the process?

> Fiberless Optics : We have already written about TeraBeam Networks in
> the past, but the concept of fiberless optics, or wireless fiber optics
> deserves another mention today. TeraBeam is not alone in the field. One
> competitor, Lucent (LU), has already tied its fortunes to TeraBeam, with
> its investment in TeraBeam Internet Systems announced two weeks ago.
> Another competitor is privately held AirFiber, which just announced some
> specifics of its technology this morning. The similarity between
> TeraBeam and AirFiber is that both are using an optical signal, or
> laser, to deliver high bandwidth connectivity to businesses in urban
> areas. There are some notable differences, however.
> Most importantly, AirFiber will deliver a "mesh" solution instead of
> TeraBeam's point-to-multipoint. Mesh implies a multiple point-to-point
> rchitecture which will probably be significantly more expensive to
> implement, but should ensure greater reliability. AirFiber claims that
> it will be able to deliver carrier class reliability, or the "five
> nines" in 99.999%, something that TeraBeam suggested it could do, but
> did not claim as a key selling point of its system. The other key
> difference is that AirFiber will seek only to be an equipment vendor
> rather than a service provider. TeraBeam has positioned itself as both
> after the recent Lucent agreement. TeraBeam Networks is a service
> provider, while TeraBeam Internet Systems, the LU joint venture, is the
> equipment vendor. In any case, the key point right now is not to pick
> whether TeraBeam or AirFiber will triumph in the fiberless optics
> battle; since they are both private, that's a debate for venture
> capitalists.
> What's important for investors is to recognize that TeraBeam is not
> alone in going after the wireless broadband opportunity with an optical
> solution. Current players in the RF (radio frequency) market continue to
> feel the pressure -- Nextlink (NXLK) and Teligent (TGNT) are both
> getting hammered today after being removed from the Gilder Technology
> Report's portfolio due to competition from TeraBeam's technology. As we
> have claimed before, however, there are positive implications for the
> equipment vendors and service providers that operate at the optical
> core. Removing the bandwidth bottleneck in the last mile, which is the
> goal of TeraBeam and AirFiber, should increase demand for their
> offerings. - Greg Jones,


Love the [Virtual Ink mimio] Boardcast. If only the polycom speakerphones spoke bluetooth to the mimio, and to the cellphone, and you could just "browse" a meeting anywhere in the world... -- Rohit Khare

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