From: Adam Rifkin (adam@KnowNow.com)
Date: Wed Dec 27 2000 - 19:56:58 PST
They shoot analysts, don't they? :)
> Year 2000 hall of shame awards
> Qualcomm at $1,000 and other sorry tales
> By Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com
> Last Update: 9:21 PM ET Dec 27, 2000
> NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Qualcomm at $1,000 a share.
> Who can forget? The brazen prediction by a greenhorn PaineWebber analyst --
> made a year ago Friday -- hit the stock market like an early trigger
> on a pile of July 4th fireworks. Qualcomm shares rose 31 percent that
> day alone and capped a massive year-end rally in tech stocks that sent
> investors spinning into 2000 with record profits and even higher hopes.
> In retrospect, the speed of that rally was as dramatic as the tumble
> tech stocks took in 2000.
> Today, Qualcomm shares trade under $100, adjusted for a 4-for-1 split, a
> drop that closely mirrors the Nasdaq's 38 percent slide for the
> year. PaineWebber has been subsumed by UBS Warburg. Meanwhile, the
> analyst, the under-30-year-old Walter Piecyk is no longer covering the
> company. He left the brokerage firm in early November and UBS officials
> aren't discussing his whereabouts, as is traditional on Wall Street.
> Still, the Piecyk call lingers. It wasn't the only wildly bullish target
> of 2000, but it well represents how far ahead of the market the sell
> side had gone. Here are a dozen or so of the more memorable calls of the
> year 2000, played out as the Nasdaq soared, then tanked to its worst
> yearly loss ever.
> 2000 - Hall of Shame
> January: The Y2K bug-sparked global depression begins. Or not. Thanks
> Deutsche Bank research, for being completely wrong on this one.
> Feb. 18: Goldman is lead underwriter for Internet consultant Inforte
> (INFT: news, msgs) and Gigamedia (GIGM: news, msgs) . Inforte rose $68
> on its Feb. 18 debut, ending at $72.94 and Gigamedia ended the day at
> $88, triple the offer price. Inforte now trades at $11 and Gigamedia is
> under $4.
> March 13: Ratings upgrades from Robertson Stephens help send shares of
> Dell (DELL: news, msgs) and Intel (INTC: news, msgs) to all-time
> intraday highs of $54.75 and $125.50. Analysts say they "believe Intel
> can hit $150 a share by midyear rather than year-end, as they'd
> predicted previously," our reporter noted. Intel near year-end: $33.06.
> April 6: QXL.com skyrockets to a high of $117.38 after SG Cowen's Thomas
> Bock set a 24-month price target of $330 (yes, $1,000 before the 3-for-1
> split) on QXLC, the "EBay of Europe." The stock now trades at 63 cents
> (or $1.89 pre-split).
> May: Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette's Jamie Kiggen reiterates that
> Priceline.com (PCLN: news, msgs) is worth $190 a share.
> It now trades at $1.28.
> June 29: Piecyk lowers Qualcomm price target to $200 and cuts estimates,
> citing "weaker-than-expected chipset sales in Korea."
> July: Compuware (CPWR: news, msgs) warns it'll miss the analysts'
> earnings estimates by about 50 percent. Computer Associates (CA: news,
> msgs) and BMC Software (BMCS: news, msgs) also warn. The tide begins to
> Aug.16: SG Cowen's Bock downgrades QXL.com to a "hold," telling clients
> "recent developments have created concerns..."
> Sept. 15: Crude spikes to 10-year high of $36 a barrel. What we have
> here is a sin of omission. Seems plenty missed the impact of a spike in
> crude on the markets in the cheery forecasts for 2000.
> October: Internet Fund manager Ryan Jacob tells shareholders "one of our
> biggest mistakes early in the year was reacting to the sell-off in
> Internet-related companies as if it were a correction, when in fact it
> is clear now that it was a crash." The fund (JAMFX: news, msgs) at that
> point was down nearly 66 percent and was the worst performing equity fund.
> Nov. 10: Dell, Intel lead Nasdaq sell-off. Dell dropped 19 percent. The
> PC maker said that 2001 revenue would grow slower than some
> estimates. Banc of America Securities cuts to a "buy" from "strong buy,"
> as does C.E. Unterberg Towbin.
> Dec. 12: Kiggen, now at Credit Suisse First Boston, reverses his Q4
> estimate on DoubleClick (DCLK: news, msgs) to a loss per share, but
> maintains the "buy" rating on the stock, citing the cash value implied
> in the share price.
> Year-end 2000: The Nasdaq is staggering to a 38 percent loss for the
> year, its worst performance ever. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs),
> perhaps the biggest dog of 1999, rank among the top performers for the
> year. The Amex Morgan Stanley REIT index is up 24.79 percent year to
> date. Meanwhile, the brokerage firms are unbowed. Market strategists are
> predicting a return to double-digit gains in the S&P 500 stocks on
> average. See Market Outlook for 2001:
Do you hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability. -- Agent Smith, _The Matrix_
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