From: Gregory Alan Bolcer (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Fri Feb 04 2000 - 07:40:07 PST
Besides, Steven Harmon thinks you can corner the whole "Web network universe"
for less than the cost of Oracle. Issuing $128B worth of stock is easy. About
1/3 of the way through, you just announce what you are doing and it funds
itself ala CMGI's b2b fund. In the end, there's only going to be one
end user/b2c company. AOL has the potential to exploit their users to
make them spend money through e-commerce, but Amazon has no bones about it--it's
what they were founded on.
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: NetStock! by Steve Harmon 2000.02.04 Digital Rivers, SearchEngines?
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 23:48:46 -0800
From: Steve Harmon <email@example.com>
To: Netstock-Report <Netstock-Report@lr2.listserve.com>
By Steve Harmon
chairman & CEO
the Internet Investment Provider
Digital Rivers & The Flow Of Commerce
And You Thought They Were Just Search Engines
For less than the cost of one Oracle (ORCL) you could acquire the entire Web
network universe. Price? $128 billion. Cheap to own the galactic eyeball
aggregation. Someday the world may see that each of these is a platform for
commerce but more scaleable than a software house.
Yahoo has those believers but I think the channel in general holds intrinsic
worth outside of one brand.
Let's look at the numbers crunched:
Web Networks: Ebb & Flow
Stock 52 Week 52 Week Market Revenue
Company Ticker Price High Low Cap. Run Rate
2/2/00 (millions) (millions)
Yahoo YHOO $328.00 $500.13 $110.00 $86,329.60 $620.31
Excite@Home ATHM $38.00 $99.00 $33.13 $14,451.40 $450.25
Lycos LCOS $72.31 $93.63 $28.55 $7,346.95 $224.13
CNET CNET $48.25 $79.88 $21.38 $3,546.38 $113.64
NBCi NBCi $91.38 $106.13 $30.00 $4,742.36 $62.71
Looksmart LOOK $34.25 $45.88 $15.00 $2,928.38 $53.12
Go2Net GNET $75.56 $111.75 $19.50 $2,289.56 $39.13
Goto.com GOTO $71.00 $114.50 $20.00 $3,230.50 $33.71
About BOUT $70.06 $100.00 $19.75 $1,170.05 $31.54
Askjeeves ASKJ $93.63 $190.50 $22.13 $2,509.15 $27.61
AVG. $92.24 $144.14 $31.94 $12,854.43 $ 165.62
TOTAL $922.44 $1,441.38 $319.42 $128,544.32 $ 1,656.15
© 2000 e-harmon
For now let naysayers say the stocks are frothy, bubblicious. The time value
of commerce may prove otherwise. Once a digital channel opens the type and
breadth of ecommerce service delivered doesn't stop. I think the proper way
to value these is akin to a water system with continual flow.
The Nile, Yangtze, Amazon and Mississippi Rivers all spawned cities and
commerce. These analog "flows" proved valuable. These rivers are as valuable
as the perpetual flow.
Similarly these "digital" flows (Web networks) spawn commerce flow. But
better since the commerce revenue returns to the network.
Prima facie and anecdotal evidence: Yahoo (YHOO) began as two guys, a pizza
and a trailer. Couple of 'cool' links. Today Yahoo Stores sells more
merchandise than many megamalls, entire cities even. How? The digital
channel opened and more and more content and commerce flow followed. More to
While Oracle benefits as a database engine for ecommerce a firm like CNET
(CNET) can continue to add more and more elements to the mix. Digital
expansion is limited only by customer needs and demands. That's how Web
platforms are more valuable to me than a software engine. CNET can use
Oracle, Intel and Microsoft. But CNET owns the relationship with users.
The 10 Web networks traded at an average of $92 per share as of February 2,
or $12.8 billion market cap. Without Yahoo (YHOO) the group was at $66 per
share and $4.7 billion market cap.
Just as NBC, CBS and ABC grew from basic radio networks I believe the Web
networks have the potential to adapt like water to the evolving digital
landscape they enable.
These are ecommerce platforms, the equivalent of owning the shipping lanes
to the digital world.
For the entrepreneur in you
"Zero Gravity" for sale at Amazon.com, bn.com, borders.com
Disclaimer: e-harmon.com does not make specific trading
recommendations or give individualized market advice. Information
contained in e-harmon.com's NetStock! is provided as an information
service only. e-harmon.com recommends that you get personal advice
from an investment professional before buying or selling stocks or
other securities. The securities markets and especially Internet
stocks are highly speculative areas for investments and only you can
determine what level of risk is appropriate for you. Also, users
should be aware that e-harmon.com, its employees and affiliates may
own securities that are the subject of reports, reviews or analysis in
NetStock!. Although e-harmon.com obtains the information reported
herein from what it deems reliable sources, no warranty can be given
as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information provided
or as to the results obtained by individuals using such information.
Each user shall be responsible for the risks of their own investment
activities and, in no event, shall e-harmon.com or its employees,
agents, partners, or any other affiliated entity be liable for any
direct, indirect, actual, special or consequential damages resulting
from the use of the information provided.
this e-report may be shared or published for
For those that subscribed to the Harmon 10 for 2000
customer service and orders were and are handled
Paid subscribers will receive soon our handful of other stocks
that almost made the list and we think are worth watching
the internet investment provider
Hummer Winblad Venture Partners is the primary investor in e-harmon.com,
Inc. Other investors include Netscape co-founder and Internet pioneer Marc
Andreessen, GeoCities founder David Bohnett, Quote.com (now part of Lycos)
founder Chris Cooper, Go2Net founder and chairman Russ Horowitz, XOOM
founder and NBC Internet CEO Chris Kitze, MP3.com founder and CEO Michael
Robertson, On24 CEO Sharat Sharon, Infosel En Linea CEO Arturo Galvan.
or see http://www.e-harmon.com
(c) 2000 e-harmon.com, Inc.
the internet investment provider
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Feb 04 2000 - 07:50:30 PST