That said, there is no proof that the Russian government has actually
built the type of failsafe, counteroffensive system that is mentioned
for various technical, safety, and political reasons. Further, the
probability that a chain of events leading to a ground level detonation
or accidental lauch is near zero. The posting you read is simply a 'what if'
game just to review the possible risks.
For more information about models, mutual destruction, bluffing, etc., I recommend
Games as Models of Social Behavior. Also, there are plenty of books on
Bayesian models of probability. You can cite me as a Dr. of Information
and Computer Science, but make sure you also explain the context of the post,
i.e. take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Good luck in your debate.
> Hi! My name is Mitch and I have a question for you. I participate in a
> debating league in my school. The topic for this year is Russia. My partner
> and I have decided to run a case that has to do with Russian Y2K problems. I
> would like to know if I can quote your article on Russian collapse due to the
> Y2k bug. I found it by doing a search on Y2k stuff. Also if you have any
> special qualifications. I noticed that this is a email going to a edu address
> so I was hoping that you were a professor or a teacher. Please write back to
> me soon, I have a tournament this weekend and your article would be awesome to
> use! Thanks for addressing this quickly!
> ch Linder