[Fortune] Winners and losers in the AT&T/TCI deal.

I Find Karma (adam@cs.caltech.edu)
Fri, 26 Jun 1998 02:07:01 -0700

> Okay check this! AMZN has DOUBLED this month!!!!

No doubt because of all the lucrative FoRK sales...


> AT&T is buying TCI for $48billion.

Why is this allowed to go through, but MCI is being investigated for
trying to merge with WorldCom for $37billion? Or am I missing something

And why does no one want to buy British Telecom?

confused but happy,

June 24, 1998
Winners and Losers in AT&T-TCI Deal By Andrew Serwer

Applause all around!! Raise the roof signs!! A rock solid, market-wise
rally on Wednesday! Big AT&T merger and techs just kept on cooking. The
Dow climbed, mostly in the afternoon, and ended up 95 points, to 8923.
(Dow 9000, I can taste it again!) Meanwhile NASDAQ made a very strong
push. We're talking 33 points, to 1877. S&P 500 was up 13, to 1132.
Transports looked nice too (always a good sign!). The long rate drifted
down to 5.65%. Yes! Here's what's up:

BIG BELL.... As I'm sure you know by now, AT&T is buying TCI, the
nation's largest cable company for $32 billion in cash and stock, plus
$16 billion in assumed debt. It's all about competing with the local
phone companies! And providing high-speed 'Net access. (Cable modems:
Are they for real?!) All right, all right. Give me grief! I missed this
one last night. At deadline there were only rumors. I had, as you may
remember, that AT&T was looking at Cablevision. The verdict: AT&T was
down $5 or so, to $60. The cable modem service @home, which is partly
owned by TCI, was up $12, to $51!! And TCI was up $2, to $38. My
verdict: Yuck!! This deal is SO complicated!! Or as Tyler said, "Malone
to the bone." Malone is a Phi Beta Kappa engineer from Yale with a Ph.D.
from Hopkins. He likes complicated. I can't believe Armstrong is going
along with this letter stock. HATE THAT!! TCI has, what, 20 million-plus
subscribers? By the way, a big victory for Goldman Sachs and CS First
Boston, which advised AT&T. They get HUGE bucks. Morgan Stanley is a big
loser here. They used to be AT&T's banker but teed off T after advising
British Telecom. So AT&T has dropped 'em it appears. BTW, the symbol for
Telecommunications is not "TCI," that's Transcontinental Reality
Investors. TCI's symbol is "TCOMA". How ridiculous!!! AT&T's symbol, of
course, is simply "T." How elegant! Baby Bells were off today, scared by
the big new Cable Guy!! Guess AT&T isn't going to buy AOL!! Or is it?

AMAZON.COM.... It's official!! Amazon.com was up $7 points, to $99 and
change. Okay check this! AMZN has DOUBLED this month!!!! It's up more
than tenfold this year!! Man! Someone should have bought 'em back then.
Saved themselves a lot of money. I tell you this is a "game stock" right
now. People playing games. Avoid it. Let the bubble burst. Then go in.

TECHS.... Okay, baby, we are going to 2000 on the NASDAQ!! Who wants to
bet?!?! I wanna bet!! NASDAQ 2000 by what? End of August I say!!!! More
all-time highs: MSFT up $4, to just under $105, and CSCO up a point, to
just under $85. NASDAQ 100 is up now seven days in a row! Speaking of
MSFT, I believe that Mr. Bill is now worth over $50 billion!! Give us
one-tenth of one-tenth of 1%!! Intel was up over $2, to $77.

MICHAEL JORDAN... Just how much has Michael Jordan meant to the Chicago
Bulls, to basketball, to the economy? FORTUNE has come up with an
answer, and the bottom line is: about $10 billion.

Start with direct revenue from the Jordan brand--sales of his videos,
box office receipts of his movie, Space Jam, revenues of his cologne,
his line of underwear, all the books written about him. His impact on
box office receipts at basketball arenas was the subject of a scholarly
study in the Journal of Labor Economics. Then there's his effect on TV
ratings and the NBA's revenues from TV and merchandise. And what about
his effect on Nike, which makes the phenomenally successful line of Air
Jordan shoes? Add in the value of his endorsement deals for other
products and what he contributed to the value of his agent David Falk's
business, which recently sold for $100 million. The grand total is a bit
over $10 billion.

And of course that leaves out a lot. What has been Jordan's impact on
Chicago? The value of his restaurant and other business deals? His
influence on future NBA contracts? We'll never know, but at least we
shouldn't forget how much better off so many people are because he's the
best at what he does.

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