"Premium" service won't work (was: Question for Clay and others)

[Robert S. Thau]

Clay Shirky writes:
 > [quoting me]:
 > > For that matter, it would seem to argue that print subscriptions are
 > > doomed, in the long run, since subscribing to those is even more of a
 > > hassle... 
 > 
 > To a first approximation, this is already true. Something like 800-900
 > new magazines launch *every* year. Most do not make it. 

Ummm... neither do most new restaurants, but I still expect to be
going out for dinner in ten years' time.  I'm not saying you're wrong
about the magazines, but the success, or lack thereof, of individual
publications doesn't really augur one way or the other for the
industry as a whole.  A better sign for that might be *aggregate*
subscription revenue --- if that's dropping (as it is for, say,
newspapers), then I could see that there's trouble.

 > Furthermore,
 > newstand sales are becoming progressively less successful, while
 > an increasing number of subscriptions are coming from places like
 > credit card companies who are offering what amounts to an offline
 > version of aggregate subscriptions.
 > 
 > Do not be surprised to see magazines start offering aggregate
 > subscription models in the next few years, _especially_ TW magazines
 > offered to AOL subscribers.

It's one thing to say that payment channels are changing, and another
to say (as you seemed to be implying with your comments about failing
new magazines) that it's becoming less viable to offer content for pay.

In any case, subscription aggregators have been around for a while;
Publishers' Clearing House, for instance.  (And in other types of
publishing as well; book of the month clubs are moderately big
business).

rst