Curtains lifting, worlds simulating, heaven descending

[Brian Atkins]

Russell Turpin wrote:
> 
> Despite the technological terminology, much of the future
> speculation I see on FoRK and elsewhere has a peculiarly
> religious tone. AI, nanotechnology, and increased biological
> knowledge won't bring just smarter machines, better materials,
> and longer lifespans, but they will also transform us or
> transcend us. Man evolves into gods, or creates gods that
> leave man behind. This happens in a flash, when trumpets
> blare and the singularity appears. The new gods simulate not
> just to learn, but also to create worlds. And following
> Tipler, we can hope that these future gods want to bring
> along each and every one of us, in a resurrected body, in a
> new heaven and a new earth. The meat is left behind, and the
> bits are sanctified.
> 
> Unless, of course, we create grey goo and descend into the
> abyss. Some prophets look into the heavens, and seeing no
> angels, predict the abyss. Others look into the same
> heavens, and seeing no angels, predict that the new heaven
> and earth are already here, and we will see them if only
> we lift the curtains. Gojomo has even suggested that all
> we have to do is BELIEVE.
> 
> This isn't science folks. It's not even science fiction.
> It's religion. Look in the mirror. You're meat. Neither
> the singularity nor the second coming will save you from
> the deterioration of the flesh. Not in our lifetimes.
> Likely not in our grandchildren's. Don't smoke, eat right,
> exercise, and fasten your seatbelts. Those might buy you
> a few more years.
> 

You are stereotyping. You are also thinking linearly ("not in our
lifetimes..."). Our current rate of technological progress is
much much faster than 100 or even 20 years ago, and it will be
much much faster in 2010, 2020, etc. So extrapolating out your
view of the future based on the current rate of change is a
mistake. Frankly, even based on our current rate you are far too
pessimistic/unrealistic. You don't have to look far to spot many
companies working right now on anti-aging biotech. So even if
AI and nanotech are impossible (unlikely) there doesn't appear to
be a good reason you can't live way past 100 as long as you aren't
too old right now.

Below is a cut n paste of a post regarding this Singularity =
religion issue. It gets to my point about stereotyping.

You know it's funny you bring up the whole meat viewpoint, since
looking at things that way ("we are the substrate, there is nothing
else") is exactly the viewpoint I have. I just think tech is going
to move fast enough over the near term to keep my meat alive and
eventually allow me to transfer the important information carried
in the meat to some more advanced substrate. Anyway, here's the
post:

--

"All As are Bs. Some Bs are Cs. Does it necessarily follow that some Cs 
are As? 


All apples are fruits. Some fruits are oranges. Does it necessarily 
follow that some oranges are apples? 


All religions have apocalyptic elements(*). The Singularity theorizes 
that we'll shortly see some apocalyptic elements in our world. Question: 
Is the Singularity a religion? 


I understand the temptation to apply the Bayesian Probability Theorem - 
which held totally true up until the dawn of Vernor Vinge - and state 
that, if a theory talks about apocalyptic events, that theory must have 
its origin in religion, religious memes, or religious emotions, and that 
the possibility that the theory is grounded in mere fact can therefore be 
discarded. And I would not argue that this theory works almost all of the 
time. 


However, theories of religious origin can be distinguished from the 
quietly factual in other ways, as well. Such theories are generally 
accompanied - especially in highly apocalyptic Western theologies - with 
statements such as "Repent or burn!", moral obligations to believe (assign 
truth values) a particular way, moral obligations not to doubt, unlimited 
suffering heaped upon the heads of the unbelievers, a climactic scene in 
which the true believers are confirmed and get to heap unlimited scorn on 
the nonbelievers, and so on. For that matter, religious apocalypses can 
be distinguished from nuclear/nanotech/biotech apocalypse, or the 
Singularity, from the tendency of religious people to talk about God! 


There was a time when you could safely dismiss every theory or prediction 
that invoked nonhuman actors. That time is over. You must now 
distinguish religious from nonreligious memes by checking for actual 
reference to supernatural causes, or actual distortions of logic, rather 
than simply reasoning from surface similarities. 


-- -- -- -- -- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ 
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence 


(*) IIRC, even Buddhism talks about a time when all souls have achieved 
enlightenment and the universe folds up shop, but I could be remembering 
incorrectly. "
-- 
Brian Atkins
Director, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
http://www.singinst.org/