The next big thing...

Adam L. Beberg beberg@mithral.com
Sat, 3 Nov 2001 23:48:37 -0800 (PST)


So, what do FoRKers speculate is the next big thing?

It's not tech, demand is flat, and Moore's law will zero out costs and
profits soon enough. Tech was the last big thing.

Biotech is a common speculation, but biotech is slow and hard. You can't
pick up "Learn Self-assembling Protein Design in 30 Minutes". Even if it's
the big thing, it's for very very few people. There also just aren't that
many diseases that we can treat (profitable) before cures (profit-killing)
are found by idealistic academics. Once you get all the vitamins and amino
acids into the corn and rice, then what?

Nanotech is another possible big thing, but has the same problems as
biotech, too few people will profit for at least 17 years. And both are 5-10
years out, not in time to dig us out of a recession.

So, speculations?

- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
  http://www.iit.edu/~beberg/
  beberg@mithral.com