meta ruminations on the next big thing

[Adam L. Beberg]

> Big wins, on the other hand, occur when something that the experts think
> trivial becomes very valuable.

Wrong, you're skipping a step...

Big wins occur when something that the experts think trivial becomes useable
by the average idiot. Then, and only then, can it become valueable because
the average idiot (aka management) will buy into the idea.

The web was useless until someone came along and added graphics, enabling
the killer application - porn.

Broadband was (still is really) useless until someone added "click here to
steal music".

AOL anyone? etc.. etc...

The problem, is that making it trivial part isn't protectable. Once you
unleash it, you have a commodity on your hands. Everyone has a web site, a
music stealer, an IM client...

Any neat bits will almost instantly be stolen, copied, cloned by the
opensourcers, and made valueless.

So the question is, is a bit (vs atom) big thing a paradox? The more I
ponder it the more I realize it is. Atoms are harder to steal, are scarce,
and subject to patents.

Thus the difficult quest for a big thing, and not just a neat thing.

- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
  http://www.iit.edu/~beberg/
  beberg@mithral.com