An Architecture for Nuclear Deterrance of Global Terrorism

Damien Morton
Thu, 4 Oct 2001 17:18:58 -0400

Alternatively, and more likely, the US gets emboiled in various
internecine power struggles, the likes of which have ben goin on for
many many years, and which not be ameanable to simplistic alliance


"Men: The numbers of Taliban's and bin Laden's fighters remain guesses
at best - some say, more than 45,000 put together, some say only
12-18,000 men are fit to fight, yet another report says that attacking
forces might encounter more than three million fighters, and that they
will come in layers and more layers - like onion skin. One can't be
sure. Even if it is the lowest number that are readily available for the
fight, the possibility of several of anti-Taliban factions joining hands
with it against foreign invaders is very real; more terrorist
organisations from across Afghan borders joining the Taliban against
America is also a real possibility. Even worse for American fighters
will be if those split armies do not all converge, but fight separately
from their own positions, with the common purpose of fighting Americans.
That will mean a fight on many unknown fronts and territories for the
western forces.=20

Much has been written about brave fighters and fighting factions. One of
the complex and dangerous things that is being overlooked by many is
that several nomadic Afghan tribes are mercenaries - ruthless ones.
These people will fight for whoever pays the highest and that could be
an attractive option for America, because it can pay more than what
Laden and the Taliban can. Except that these fighters are not just
ruthless, they are also lawless - many of them are known to fight on
both sides in the course of a day and a night. Former militia commanders
Daoud Jawan and Syed Ahmed, for instance, had their men fight for the
government by day and for the Mujahideen at night. That could prove more
lethal for the Americans than for the Taliban."

Damien Morton, Technical Director, Dennis Interactive

The glass is neither half-full nor half-empty. Its too big.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Russell Turpin []
> Sent: Tuesday, September 18, 2001 6:33 AM
> To:
> Subject: Re: An Architecture for Nuclear Deterrance of Global=20
> Terrorism
> Paul Prescod writes:
> >I'm all for war against the Taliban, but I think we should=20
> see it as a war=20
> >of liberation for the Afghani people. And we should help=20
> them to remain=20
> >liberated.
> The problem is how to get *them* to see it that way.
> Both Jeff Bone and Paul Prescod assume that either
> (a) the Afghans think much like we westerners, or
> (b) they support the Taleban. I suspect neither of
> these is the case, for the majority of Afghans. If
> we're not careful, we could unite the Afghans against
> us. Indeed, if we really fuck up, we could unite the
> Arab world against us. And *that* is precisely Osama
> bin Laden's plan. He may be crazy. But I suspect he
> understands Arab thought and Arab politics better
> than some FoRKers who write about geopolitics as if
> it were a game of Risk.
> Russell
> _________________________________________________________________
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