THE DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB

Adam L. Beberg beberg@mithral.com
Thu, 18 Oct 2001 15:40:36 -0700 (PDT)


On Thu, 18 Oct 2001, Russell Turpin wrote:

> In some sense, the important number is GDP relative to population, since
> this measures change in each slice of the pie, rather than in the pie as
> a whole. Increasing GDP by 4% while increasing population by 10% means
> everyone has less. I've always wondered that the measures of national
> economies were not more often normalized to population.

You would think that wouldn't you. This probably isn't done because people
want to believe that things are forever improving.

But it's not that bad... as long as GDP growth is well over population and
inflation you're OK.

Population: ~1%
http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/popclockest.txt
Real GDP: (GDP - inflation) ~3% until recently.
http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/index.cfm?lesson=EM170

Also a "country" becomes a black box, noone cares what's inside, as long as
it's growing the system is stable. If the real GDP starts shrinking, it
starts causing all kinds of problems with the economy, exchange rates, etc.
Concentration of wealth via increasing productivity will also kill ya.

- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
  http://www.iit.edu/~beberg/
  beberg@mithral.com