Shock result of French presidential election

Robert Harley harley@argote.ch
Mon, 22 Apr 2002 21:14:28 +0200 (CEST)


OK, let's assume that everyone who voted for the moderate right
candidates votes for Chirac on the second round.

Let assume that half of those who voted on the left vote for Chirac
(even the Communist party is calling for people to vote Chirac!) and
half of them abstain.

Polls say that 58% of those whose who voted Le Pen intend to do so
again (i.e., it was largely a protest vote gone horribly wrong).
Let's assume that the same applies to Megret and Saint-Josse voters,
and that the other 42% abstain.

Let's assume that half of the first-round abstainers vote Chirac and
half abstain again.

I think these are reasonable ball-park numbers.

Overall that would mean about the same abstention level as before (28.4%)
and the final result being 83% of voters going for Chirac with the
remaining 17% going for Le Pen.

Changing some of the assumptions leads to similar figures, namely 80%
or so for Chirac.  That is a crushing majority by any means, and all the
more so in a country used to second-round figures like 49% versus 51%...
Even a lower majority, like 70%, would speak volumes.

Good.  Many people are feeling ashamed right about now and worry about
the effect on the way France is viewed internationally.  Maybe the
tarnished image will be shined up a bit in two weeks.


L8r,
  Rob.
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