More economics from the trenches

Adam L. Beberg beberg@mithral.com
Mon, 29 Apr 2002 20:23:34 -0700 (PDT)


The Paychex CEO was on CNBC today, this is the company that actually prints
the paychecks for 375,000 companies. So you could say they know exactly how
many people are working and how much they are making for a significant chunk
of the economy. Basicly, same-company # of paychecks is down about 4.6%, but
more importantly shows no signs at all of leveling out. So basicly the guy
in the trenches with hard numbers says things are still getting worse,
people are still losing jobs. Finally someone saying what people are seeing.

The government numbers paint a recovery picture of course, but once you run
out of unemployment, you officially become "not looking for work", and dont
count anymore. If everyone lost their job today, unemployemnt would be
100% for 6 months, then in 6 months +1 day unemployment would be 0%.

Does anyone know if the .gov reports on the payroll taxes collected each
month? Since it's a unavoidable flat % of your paycheck, it should be a hard
to manipulate measure of employment.

- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
  http://www.mithral.com/~beberg/
  beberg@mithral.com