More economics from the trenches

Jason Axtell jason@privacyright.com
Mon, 29 Apr 2002 23:58:17 -0700


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Checking with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I got data taken from the CPS
(see http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_faq.htm) for the last 10 years for total
labor force size and unemployment rate for both San Francisco and California
as a whole. From 1992 through 2000, San Francisco tracks very closely with
California's numbers. Starting in early 2001, however, SF's unemployment
rate shoots up significantly, while unemployment statewide rises only
slightly. Meanwhile, the size of the labor force continues to grow both in
the City and statewide at roughly the same rate as it has been for the last
several years. Only in the last quarter of 2001 does the SF labor force
begin to shrink, although there isn't yet enough data to see if this trend
will continue.

At this point, the data I'm seeing for San Francisco is somewhat disturbing.
The labor force is shrinking, but the unemployment rate is still rising. The
last month for which BLS had data - February - actually showed a slight drop
in the unemployment rate, but this is attributable to seasonal variation
(January is always a peak unemployment month). Bottom line: the CPS data
says that things in SF are worse right now than at any point in the last 5
years and show no signs thus far of getting any better.

Given that a picture's worth a thousand words, I've attached four pictures,
each a graph covering data from January 1992 through February 2002:

     sf-labor.png          San Francisco Labor Force size
     ca-labor.png          California Labor Force size
     sf-unemployment.png   San Francisco Unemployment rate
     ca-unemployment.png   California Unemployment rate

I don't know right off how these figures compare with the national numbers.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Kelley [mailto:kelley@interpactinc.com]
> Sent: Monday, April 29, 2002 8:48 PM
> To: Adam L. Beberg
> Cc: fork@xent.com
> Subject: Re: More economics from the trenches
> 
> 
> At 08:23 PM 4/29/02 -0700, Adam L. Beberg wrote:
> 
> 
> the reason why the unemployment rate is comparatively low is that the 
> _employment_ rate has been declining. Low UNemployment rates 
> have been 
> driven by a shrinking labor force over the past two years: between 
> 2000-2002, the employment rate fell 2.2% which is an 
> historically large drop.
> 
> http://www.epinet.org/briefingpapers/bp121.html
> 
> btw, thanks for all the help with mail usage stats!
> 
> 
> 
> kelley
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://xent.com/mailman/listinfo/fork
> 


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