Le Pen...

[Gordon Mohr]

I suspect these protests might actually boost Le Pen's vote
total, above what he would have received had the protesters
stayed home and simply voted against him.

Why?

These people are not protesting a systemic failure, an abuse
of power, electoral corruption, or even an injustice.

They're just protesting a man, his party, and their ideas.

The protesters don't have a specific grievance that needs
correcting, against anyone except their fellow voters. So
they're simply trying to convince -- and perhaps subtextually
intimidate/shame -- people into opposing Le Pen. The
protesters' message is not: "Reform! Reform! Reform!"

Rather, it is: "Conform! Conform! Conform!"

This atmosphere may create the desired effect in public --
with even Le Pen sympathizers publically distancing themselves
from him, to avoid the stares and yells -- but when it comes
time to cast a secret ballot, the pent-up resentment at being
unable to express certain views could lead to more Le Pen votes,
e.g.: voters thinking, "I don't completely agree with him, and
I even marching in the anti-LePen rally because last week because
everyone was doing it, but *someone* has to say these things,
and this is my only chance to express my discontent."

- Gordon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert Harley" <harley@argote.ch>
To: <fork@xent.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 10:49 AM
Subject: Re: Le Pen...


> Yesterday there were protest marches "for" and "against" the Front
> National.  The FN always holds a march on the 1st of May and yesterday
> were promising a show of strength with 60000 to 100000 people, bussing
> them in from all over France for a mega-march in Paris.  However
> according to the police, there between 8000 and 10000 of them.
> Meanwhile anti-FN voices called for about 400 marches all over France,
> eclipsing the traditional workers parades.  Collected from some
> sources, using the low figures given by the cops rather than the
> inflated ones given by the organisers...
>
>   400000 Paris
>    50000 Lyon
>    50000 Grenoble
>    45000 Toulouse
>    38000 Bordeaux
>    35000 Rennes
>    30000 Marseille
>    30000 Lille
>    25000 Nancy
>    20000 Nantes
>    15000 Paris
>    15000 Strasbourg
>    14000 Dijon
>    14000 Rouen
>    14000 Saint-Nazaire
>    13000 Caen
>    11000 Brest
>    10000 Chambéry
>    10000 Tours
>      ...
>
> Total: approximately 1.2 or 1.3 million.
>
> - Rob
>
>
> http://xent.com/mailman/listinfo/fork