This Is The Way The World Ends (Scenario Planning)

Eugen Leitl eugen@leitl.org
Mon, 17 Mar 2003 21:16:33 +0100 (CET)


On Mon, 17 Mar 2003, Joseph S Barrera III wrote:

> Do you really think we would/will use
> tactical nukes in this war? I doubt it.

There's pressure on side of weapon people to first-use precision 
small-yield/speciality devices. Simple economics indicates that 18000 lb 
tritonal hauled halfway around the world is not cost-effective.

The only thing holding them back is that political first-use fallout would
be deadly. Once the de facto moral ban has been eroded both the frequency 
of use and the average yield would tend to go up quickly.

Would seem like a terrible idea. I really hated my childhood in the shadow 
of the bomb.