This Is The Way The World Ends (Scenario Planning)

Justin Mason jm@jmason.org
Mon, 17 Mar 2003 14:43:54 -0800


Robert S. Thau said:
> I think it's more likely that Turkish and Iranian proxies would start
> fighting each other than combine into a single force opposed to the US
> army of occupation -- but that's a real wild-ass guess, as I know very
> little about the state of Turkish/Iranian relations, nor what land the
> Iranian proxies would actually try to grab.  It's possible that they
> could negotiate mutually acceptable zones of influence -- either with
> the Turks, against the Kurds, or with the Kurds, against the Turks.
> Heck, it's *possible* they already have (though negotiating anything
> with the Kurds, who fight each other at the drop of a hat, would be a
> real neat trick).

Great thread guys -- I think you're spot-on.

It's 100% guaranteed that, if the war eventually does go off like the US
want it to, Turkey and Iran will both attempt massive land grabs; Turkey
into Kurdish areas as rst says, and Iran any way and anywhere it can.
This is a pity, as Iran actually seemed to be moderating nicely over the
last few years; it's definitely going to get more hard-line if this
happens.

And it'll make a hell of a lot of work for the US and UK to try to keep
that part of the world the way they want it.

Also, one thing you both have missed is the possibility of a retaliatory
al-Qaeda attack in the UK; I reckon this is more likely than another US
attack.  London's going to be a big target for them, and probably much
less defended than US cities are.

(La feile Padraig shona diobh, BTW!)

--j.