This Is The Way The World Ends (Scenario Planning)
Mon, 17 Mar 2003 17:28:52 -0600
On Monday, Mar 17, 2003, at 15:29 US/Central, Russell Turpin wrote:
> Jeff Bone:
>> This is all highly speculative, but... far from the limited-scope
>> war the hawks are hawking, I think that this thing has the potential
>> to blossom into a full-blown WWIII.
> Fortunately, the stock market seems to cheer
> pending armageddon.
Not a dead cat bounce. More an agonal breath. Don't mistake relief
that the uncertainty is over with any sort of cheer or sustainable
> I'm more optimistic than Jeff about the war,
> but I think we're in for hard economic times,
> nonetheless. I'm betting against stocks and
> the dollar, and waiting for Republican deficits
> to kick up interest rates.
Yup --- we should be talking about that, and we aren't. We're in for a
mess of ugly with a capital ugh on the economic front. Bush is a
bastard, he's fucking with my (and your!) livelihood with all little
> Of course, if y'all are smart, you will do just
> the opposite. Given my past track record, that's
> the way to make money.
I'm not making any bets at all on the market these days. First,
because I'm demonstrably no good at betting with real money ;-) but
mostly because there's just too much uncertainty all around. I might
make a few opportunistic, contrarian potshots. Looked at Raytheon a
few weeks back when the "Shock and Awe Strategy" story broke, but
didn't move on it.