This Is The Way The World Ends (Scenario Planning)

Jeff Bone jbone@deepfile.com
Mon, 17 Mar 2003 17:28:52 -0600


On Monday, Mar 17, 2003, at 15:29 US/Central, Russell Turpin wrote:

> Jeff Bone:
>> This is all highly speculative, but...  far from the limited-scope 
>> war the hawks are hawking, I think that this thing has the potential 
>> to blossom into a full-blown WWIII.
>
> Fortunately, the stock market seems to cheer
> pending armageddon.

Not a dead cat bounce.  More an agonal breath.  Don't mistake relief 
that the uncertainty is over with any sort of cheer or sustainable 
positive trend...

> I'm more optimistic than Jeff about the war,
> but I think we're in for hard economic times,
> nonetheless. I'm betting against stocks and
> the dollar, and waiting for Republican deficits
> to kick up interest rates.

Yup --- we should be talking about that, and we aren't.  We're in for a 
mess of ugly with a capital ugh on the economic front.  Bush is a 
bastard, he's fucking with my (and your!) livelihood with all little 
vendetta.

> Of course, if y'all are smart, you will do just
> the opposite. Given my past track record, that's
> the way to make money.

I'm not making any bets at all on the market these days.  First, 
because I'm demonstrably no good at betting with real money ;-) but 
mostly because there's just too much uncertainty all around.  I might 
make a few opportunistic, contrarian potshots.  Looked at Raytheon a 
few weeks back when the "Shock and Awe Strategy" story broke, but 
didn't move on it.

jb