Re[2]: This Is The Way The World Ends (Scenario Planning)

Bill Humphries bill@whump.com
Mon, 17 Mar 2003 17:44:45 -0800


On Monday, March 17, 2003, at 05:27 PM, James Rogers wrote:

> From various sources I've been triangulating I am getting the distinct
> impression that something interesting is being worked out behind the 
> scenes
> between the various parties in that region.

Which parties? Turks and Kurds, or the whole of the mideast?

> I don't really have a good idea
> of what is going on other than that there seems to be a lot of parties 
> at
> the table that you wouldn't normally expect to see together at the 
> table.

What's getting them there? Are they sitting down out of fear that 
they'll be served up after Iraq, or are they looking for a way out.

> I'm hopeful that a workable long-term solution will come out of this, 
> though
> I'm probably being optimistic.

I'd like to be optimistic as well, but this is a region where power has 
been kept by either brute force, or a brutal refusal of modernity. I'm 
wondering what's in it for the players. I'm worried about Turkey -- I 
don't think the Civilian gov't is going to be permitted to continue, 
and that we'll take the blame (though it will be entirely the doings of 
the Turkish military).

-- whump