Bebergian Scenario

Eugen Leitl eugen@leitl.org
Tue, 18 Mar 2003 19:29:23 +0100 (CET)


On Tue, 18 Mar 2003, Russell Turpin wrote:

> A bioweapon wouldn't do that. That's not even

Actually it would take several, simultaneously stealthily released strains
of engineered pathogens with 1) high infectivity (rhinoviruses) 2) long
symptomless latency (HIV) and 3) high mortality to achieve GDeath range.

I do not think anyone anywhere has such capabilities, at least not
currently. By the time it becomes possible we hopefully will have realtime
pathogen DNA screening, infrastructure to notify and to seal up using
physical barriers, and fast-response/individual molecular therapies.

> a worst-case scenario for SARS (which I still
> think is a kick-ass flu). That kind of Bebergian
> scenario requires something like escalation
> to nuclear exchange between the major nations.