SPORK: About 'peace' people being supporters of SH.

johnhall johnhall@isomedia.com
Sun, 23 Mar 2003 01:08:19 -0800


> From: JS Kelly [mailto:jskelly@jskelly.com]

> 
> and have you, mr hall, given any serious consideration to the cost of
> intervention, the likelihood of success, and the risk of bad side
effects
> in our involvement in iraq? i would be very curious to hear your
analysis
> of these.
> regards,

Risk adjusted cost of intervention in Iraq: negative.
                     Likelihood of success: 100%.
                  Risk of bad side effects: Large, but no larger than
the risks of not intervening.

In a random African hell hole the cost of intervention is always
positive since the cost of not getting involved is not significantly
different from zero.

The direct costs, of course, of going into Iraq aren't insignificant.
Easily $100 to $200 Billion over the next 5 years.  At the high end that
is .4% of our 5 year GNP to permanently rid ourselves of this threat.

If the average cost of oil is $1.64/bbl less than it would be with
Saddam's oil fields limited and a war premium the benefit to the US
exceeds the cost of financing the high end of that figure with 30yr
bonds.

And the benefit of deterrence after smashing Saddam?  Priceless.