More prediction fodder and musings...

jbone at place.org jbone at place.org
Mon Sep 8 18:06:09 PDT 2003


Per the job stats discussion...  some data on things as they ACTUALLY 
ARE rather than re-spinning a .001 drop as something significant.  
(Don't shoot the messenger.  I'm optimistic, really --- I think things 
will begin a marked and long-term sustained improvement on every 
conceivable dimension as soon as the Bush cabal is defeated next 
November and the light at the end of the tunnel becomes clear.  Sooner, 
if his approval rating keeps plummeting and it becomes more widely 
acknowledged that he won't be re-elected.)

---

	http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/mercurynews/business/6707114.htm

Sobering report on jobs
NEW ECONOMY: FED REPORT SAYS LABOR MARKET HAS CHANGED, ENDING MANY 
TYPES OF WORK.:
By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The vast majority of the 2.7 million job losses since the 
2001 recession began were the result of permanent changes in the U.S. 
economy and are not coming back, which means the labor market will not 
regain strength until new positions are created in novel and dynamic 
economic sectors, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study has 
concluded.

...

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On the upside, though, nice tech and biotech rally on NASDAQ.  18 month 
high!  I wish I could believe it was sustainable absent a broader basis 
for confidence.

---

NB, job creation will begin in earnest as soon as we get this turkey 
out of office.  Biotech bubble, spurred on by Dean-inspired spending in 
appropriate areas.  That's ASSUMING this damn Iraq debacle doesn't eat 
our lunch, i.e. that we can convince certain other nations to help us 
wipe our own ass and clean up the mess that we made w/ this 
ill-conceived misadventure.

---

"Aw, hell.  $100B is NOT too much to spend to NOT kill the guy that did 
NOT manage to kill my Dad!" --- Dubya, my alternate universe.

---

BTW, anybody tracking the WMD issue on TradeSports?  Hmmm...  Where ARE 
those damn WMDs, anyway? ;-)  Goes to show you what 80% confidence 
means when coupled with 75% willful ignorance and 100% partisan 
stupidity.

---

jb



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