Clarification for Russell

Russell Turpin deafbox at hotmail.com
Thu Sep 25 17:47:12 PDT 2003


Jeff Bone:
>Yes, that's right.  Those are the two quarters mentioned / used in the 
>analysis that are recessionary under Democratic leadership.

Ah -- I misread. My mistake, but I'll offer
a friendly suggestion: when you next post
the table, tag the rows by party.

I suspect the greatest question in the
analysis will be issue of time lag and
causality. Nixon had been President for
only a few months before the 4th quarter
retraction of '69,and Dubya was just
finishing the left-over inaugural cake when
the dot-com implosion reverberated through
the economy.

What you wrote earlier makes an interesting
counter-argument: that the economy, to a
large extent, is a social composite of our
attitudes and expectations. When Dubya
became President, the majority of people
who voted against him started to realize
what that would mean. The cold calculation
of homo economicus has as its inputs the
individual's "utility functions," which
come from the desires and expectations of
homo politicus. Because the President,
perhaps more than any other office, shapes
our expectations and sentiment, he rightly
gets credit for the economy from the day he
is elected. Or in Dubya's case, from the
day the Supreme Court decided he was
President. ;-)

Well, regardless of how we assign blame
for pain early in a Presidential term, the
honeymoon is long since past. I only hope
that middle America's concern with their
pocketbook trumps their social conservatism.

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