A. Gary Shilling

jbone at place.org jbone at place.org
Thu Nov 27 21:05:53 PST 2003


Just to be clear:

RT sez:

> Seriously, the grimmer financial analysts and
> advisors have been enjoying their couple of years
> in the sun. They still might be right. But it
> looks to me that the economic upturn is real, and
> that it is *starting* to have positive effects on
> the job market, including even IT.  I'm starting
> to see CIOs at big companies budget in a fashion
> that is more forward looking, rather than merely
> keeping the boat afloat with least expenditure.

None of which is inconsistent w/ Shilling's macro-perspective.  I 
wouldn't discount the perspective out-of-hand;  he's no nattering 
naybob --- indeed, the track record is similar to e.g. Kurzweil's in 
tech over the medium term.

> (a) That doesn't mean we're out of the woods.
> Equities are still pricey, and there's a mountain
> of worrisome debt. Oil prices are high, and may
> go higher.

He's saying precisely this, if you dig in...

> (b) The government's latest moves are scary, more
> from a long-term perspective than next year. The
> Medicare give-away doesn't take effect until 2006.
> By "give-away," I don't mean to retirees, but to
> favored businesses. It seems the Republicans have
> completely thrown any notion of fiscal
> responsbility to the winds, and are happily being
> bought by industry that wants to marry itself to
> government. This is a good Thanksgiving for the
> drug companies:

Totally consistent w/ Shilling's position...

jb



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