Bin Laden Comes Clean, War On Terror Continues

Bill Stoddard bill at wstoddard.com
Fri Jan 16 12:02:58 PST 2004


Dave Long wrote:

>>The question is, were the intelligence and policies valid at the time
>>they were enacted and if no, what changed?  
> 
> 
> As far as I can tell, nothing has changed.
> 
> The intelligence may have been valid, if
> we really believed we'd had good chances
> of holding a matching hole card instead of
> just a four-flush.
> 
> The policy, however, was never valid.  The
> rational move is to look at the hole card
> and see if one has a flush; the irrational
> move is to cultivate a reputation for wild
> play by betting big without peeking.

That assertion is debatable (but don't bother debating it with me cause I really don't want to play). UbL 
grossly miscalculated the US response to WTC probably because he viewed the US as a paper tiger. Some 
unpredictability is not necessarily a bad thing (tho it comes with a whole host of dangers).

Bill


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