[FoRK] Re: CNN QuickVote today: Kerry beats Bush handily
jbone at place.org
jbone at place.org
Wed Mar 3 13:07:30 PST 2004
> That'd be a much more interesting poll and
> a much more interesting post than yet another
> "hey look at this" posts.
Grouse, grouse, grouse. Zogby, the du jour darling of AM talk radio of
course. The red state / blue state hypothesis is interesting, of
course... but it rests on an assumption that, I believe, could easily
be flawed --- namely that voter turnout in the election among voters
that don't register in the primary is going to be historically par for
the course. Unless that's the case, the "currently registered"
qualification in the sampling process skews the results.
Eventually, maybe, hopefully, certain parties will finally at long last
recognize that forwarding newsbits isn't the same as asserting their
truth, offering a hypothesis, etc. For the wilfully obtuse, here is
how that previous message should've been interpreted: "The Bush Can't
Lose meme is tiresome if for no other reason than certain polls
repeatedly show that him behind. The outcome of Election '04 is by no
means a foregone conclusion, for any number of reasons."
We'll see. There's polls, damn polls, and reality of course. Other
polls, including Gallup (which did indeed target self-identified
"likely voters") came to this conclusion earlier in the month (the
18th) as reported on a so-called pro-life website:
"In a head-to-head matchup between Kerry and Bush, a new poll sponsored
by USA Today, CNN and Gallup reveals that 55 percent of likely voters
say they prefer Kerry while only 43 percent back Bush. A poll conducted
earlier in February by the same group found Bush ahead 49-48 percent."
And everything can turn on a dime --- recent history ala Dean, of
course, being a great case in point.
It's going to be a fun year. And by fun I of course mean "makes you
want to take up autotrepanning."
More information about the FoRK