[FoRK] Re: CNN QuickVote today: Kerry beats Bush handily

jbone at place.org jbone at place.org
Wed Mar 3 13:07:30 PST 2004


GB sez:

> That'd be a much more interesting poll and
> a much more interesting post than yet another
> "hey look at this" posts.

Grouse, grouse, grouse.  Zogby, the du jour darling of AM talk radio of 
course.  The red state / blue state hypothesis is interesting, of 
course...  but it rests on an assumption that, I believe, could easily 
be flawed --- namely that voter turnout in the election among voters 
that don't register in the primary is going to be historically par for 
the course.  Unless that's the case, the "currently registered" 
qualification in the sampling process skews the results.

Eventually, maybe, hopefully, certain parties will finally at long last 
recognize that forwarding newsbits isn't the same as asserting their 
truth, offering a hypothesis, etc.  For the wilfully obtuse, here is 
how that previous message should've been interpreted:  "The Bush Can't 
Lose meme is tiresome if for no other reason than certain polls 
repeatedly show that him behind.  The outcome of Election '04 is by no 
means a foregone conclusion, for any number of reasons."

We'll see.  There's polls, damn polls, and reality of course.  Other 
polls, including Gallup (which did indeed target self-identified 
"likely voters") came to this conclusion earlier in the month (the 
18th) as reported on a so-called pro-life website:

	http://www.lifenews.com/nat342.html

"In a head-to-head matchup between Kerry and Bush, a new poll sponsored 
by USA Today, CNN and Gallup reveals that 55 percent of likely voters 
say they prefer Kerry while only 43 percent back Bush. A poll conducted 
earlier in February by the same group found Bush ahead 49-48 percent."

And everything can turn on a dime --- recent history ala Dean, of 
course, being a great case in point.

It's going to be a fun year.  And by fun I of course mean "makes you 
want to take up autotrepanning."

jb



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