[FoRK] Re: CNN QuickVote today: Kerry beats Bush handily

Gregory Alan Bolcer gbolcer at endeavors.com
Wed Mar 3 15:06:11 PST 2004



jbone at place.org wrote:
> 
> 
> Grouse, grouse, grouse.  Zogby, the du jour darling of AM talk radio of 
> course.  The red state / blue state hypothesis is interesting, of 
> course...  

That's not the theory I'm talking about.  You are switching
the subject.  The theory I'm talking about is that statistical
margin of error is reduced when polling those who self-identify
as most likely to vote in the next election.   You think that
you can draw such a stupid conclusion from a CNN quickvote?
Would the same quickvote give the same indicators if it was
hosted off of fox news, msnbc, or rush limbaugh?   If the average
statisticaly margin or error for adequate sampling is +/-3% and
given the biased sampling it's more likely 6%+, that puts the
poll at about 50/50.

> Eventually, maybe, hopefully, certain parties will finally at long last 
> recognize that forwarding newsbits isn't the same as asserting their 
> truth, offering a hypothesis, etc. 

Eventually I am hoping YOU will realize how utterly clueless
you are when it comes to knowing what a bit is and isn't.

Commandment 7: Thou shalt comment on any bits and/or clue you forward. 
Don't just send us raw bits, because we are all well read. Send a 
paragraph or two about the bits. To quote the brilliant Dan Connolly,

     The paragraph or two of personal analysis is the essential part. 
Without that, a "hey, read this!" message is nothing more than a 
commercial. In this age of information overload, let's do each other the 
favor of information _reduction_.

So give us commentary, or shut the f*** up.  For you?  Try the latter.

Greg




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