[FoRK] ... guarantee house values / ... statisticians ...

Gregory Alan Bolcer gbolcer at endeavors.com
Thu Mar 4 11:14:48 PST 2004



Dave Long wrote:
> 
> I ran into him doing a wall at Jazz Fest
> not too long ago, and didn't notice any
> odor of decay or shuffling gait; current
> voodoo reanimators must be pretty good.

Yes, he was alive and well when I saw him
in Lahaina.  The implicit in the sentence
is "if he had one."  Actually Weiland gets
high marks on Rotten's dead pool for his
drug habits, but not sure he has anything
to do with large, painted whale immortalizations.

> Say one knows for certain that a bet
> will win with odds of 51%, but there
> are parties offering even payouts.
> 
> A) what is the optimal fraction of
>    one's stake to bet per flip?
> B) what is the expected return?
> 

I think that game is compute-reducible to
the traditonal matching pennies game.  If one
has a pure strategy and the other has a mixed, I think
I remember that one player can get a dominant strategy
by pitching 7 Heads to 12 tails, and if both
players always play optimally (perfect equalibrium
strategies with risk neutrality), you can get a NE of
some expected return that I'm too lazy to remember how to computer.

von Neuman and Morgenstern would be spinning
in their graves.

Greg


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