[FoRK] re: So what do the bookies say about 2004?

jbone at place.org jbone at place.org
Wed Mar 10 22:04:14 PST 2004


> Someone sent me this.  It is a list of real-time odds on the 2004
> election from a dozen different online bookmakers.  It is strongly
> weighted in favor of the Dubya, to sum up.  There is the relative
> consistency across the many different bookmakers, odds-wise, though I
> suppose this is expected.
>
> http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/10722x/
> sid/10445

Not being much of a gambler (that kind, anyway ;-) I'm not familiar  
with any of these --- how do they make book?

> I won't speculate as to whether or not Idea Futures and similar has
> meaningful predictive value.

I tend to think it does.  One of the things I like about TradeSports is  
that it works more precisely like Hanson / FX in terms of the mechanism  
for pricing than does a normal book.

A picture's worth a thousand words:

	http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_amd.jsp? 
selConID=11738&z=11/03/2004-05:55:48#

Short version:  Bush is on a steep tumble, the steepest since inception  
of the issue.  He's still above water --- better than even to win ---  
but FAR less than his peak, and approaching his low at a good clip.   
(Lifetime high:  75.  Low:  58.  Current:  59.9.)

There's still money to be made, though.  If you think he'll win, and  
you feel like putting your money where your mouth is, kitty up.  :-)   
I'll sell more George.

jb



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