[FoRK] All The Rope II: Noose of Words

Bill Stoddard bill at wstoddard.com
Thu Mar 18 08:32:08 PST 2004

Dr. Robert J. Harley wrote:

>>What I've always argued is that Powell's speech to the UN was the best
>>cumulation of intelligence at the time and the strongest case for war
>>in Iraq.  You either believed it or you didn't. [...]
> I did not believe the hype, but I expected Powell to come out with
> some evidence, probably way insufficient to support the "threat"
> assessment, but something tangible nevertheless, and I wondered how
> far it would go.  Perhaps he might even have had a surprising
> bombshell or two to drop.
> I watched his presentation with my Dad... my jaw gradually dropped
> lower and lower and when he was well into his insubstantial blathering
> I said "They have nothing.  Absolutely nothing".

Humm... just for fun, an assertion and a prediction....  (I'm not putting any of my $ behind this prediction ;-)

The Iraqi invasion is one piece of a strategy for dealing with the simultanious and conflicting requirements 
to 1) increase military spending to deal with the terrorist threat (or support American imperiliasm, whatever 
floats your boat) and 2) deal with the budget and trade deficit. Tax cut was thrown in because it was 
politically expedient and is overall noise in the grand scheme.

How does it work?
Uncle Al is increasing money supply at an unsustainable rate, deflating the value of the dollar and igniting 
inflation in basic materials.  The basic strategy is to inflate our way out of debt. The huge budget deficit 
becomes less significant as the future value of those dollars is reduced. Inflation is on the way and big time...

Just as inflation begins to become obvious to everyone, Iraqi oil floods the market. Oil drops to below $20 
per barrel. This will kick start the world economy, US goods will be priced more competetively for export due 
to weakened dollar, and after a good bout of inflation, the national debt will magically become more 
palitable. Price of oil will drop beginning around sept timeframe, just in time for the election...

I have no earthly idea if the numbers actually add up in this scheme.


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