[FoRK] Another take on deficits, employment, etc.

Russell Turpin deafbox at hotmail.com
Sun Mar 21 06:20:46 PST 2004


>An old Japanese rerun
>Alan Reynolds

In my mind, there is no doubt that
productivity is good. And I tend not
to worry too much about the trade
debt. However, I do worry about
debts that this article does not
much address, that combined are
now at record levels relative to
GDP: government, corporate, and
personal. Those are especially
worrisome given that the boomers
are about to retire. Increasing
productivity requires investment,
and we may have traded much of
our ability to invest down the road
for the need to pay off debt.

The local paper had three
interesting real estate articles
this week: (a) sellers of existing
homes are having difficulty
competing against the incentives
being offered by builders of spec
homes, (b) record numbers of
mortgage holders are defaulting,
and (c) larger numbers of new
buyers are taking ARMs, even
though interest rates are at
record lows. In my view, a house
is one of the few things that
justifies an individual going into
debt. But even here, these are
worrisome trends.

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