[FoRK] What will the big political issues be in the future?

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Wed Aug 4 13:47:04 PDT 2004

On Wed, Aug 04, 2004 at 11:12:44AM -0600, daniel grisinger wrote:

> very interesting post this weekend on futurepundit.  what should

Not really, most of it is rather naive projections. Of the
"In twenty years half the population of Europe will have visited the
				-- Jules Verne, 1865"

The immediate future is here:
these trends will take a while to drift into productive population histogram

Also, "predictions are notoriously difficult, especially about the future".

> we be looking to as the big political issues in 20[1-5]4.
> i have serious doubts as to any projections that feature
> vinge's notion of a runaway artificial intelligence, but

It is a dark horse, and one changing all the rules of the game.
You can't predict that but shortly before it happens. Probably not even then:
the best way to predict it would be to invent and deploy it.

> this was interesting nonetheless.

Sure, to pick it apart and show why this is not even an analysis.

Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
ICBM: 48.07078, 11.61144            http://www.leitl.org
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http://moleculardevices.org         http://nanomachines.net
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