[FoRK] Scalability of intelligence

J.Andrew Rogers andrew at ceruleansystems.com
Wed Aug 4 22:29:45 PDT 2004


On Aug 4, 2004, at 2:16 PM, daniel grisinger wrote:
> What this notion is doing is making a strong statement about
> the relation between how hard it is to advance from one level
> of intelligence to the next.  Basically, it's saying that after
> some threshhold is reached intelligence will begin to accelerate
> at some rate, say I(x) = 2^x.  But there's an implicit assumption
> that that rate is faster than the rate at which the problem of
> becoming more intelligent is becoming hard.  If how hard it is
> to become more intelligent is described by H(x) = 2^x^x, then the
> entire runaway becomes impossible.  Sure, you become 2^x smarter
> at each step, but if the next step is 2^x^x times harder to take
> you certainly aren't running away.


It isn't easy to quantify, at least not in terms humans normally think 
of it.

Intelligence has a space complexity of the form 2^a, where "a" is the 
general order of algorithmic abstraction supported by the machine.  A 
machine with a=n can directly represent and manipulate a machine with 
a=n-1, which is a huge qualitative difference.  The difference between 
very stupid and very smart humans is probably on the order of 0.2-0.3 
in this term, but this is difficult to measure in practice because 
humans do not evenly allocate all those resources, allowing people who 
are stupid on average to be locally intelligent.  It does give you an 
idea of how important a little improvement in "a" actually is.  
Anything a full point higher than smart humans would essentially be 
god-like in its intelligence from the perspective of a human and we 
would be incapable of comprehending it by definition.  While we might 
care in the abstract, we would rapidly have difficulty discerning the 
rate of intelligence growth.  I don't think a squirrel can grok the 
intelligence of humans either nor discern whether or not it is 
increasing.

The resource complexity is a bitch though.  Hardware can not scale like 
this forever, but each time you increment "a" you can work in an entire 
new space of systems that you previously could not even be properly 
conceptualized.  While intelligence will appear to be accelerating 
using some kind of linear measure (arguably a stupid way to look at 
it), the growth of "a" will almost certainly be sub-linear in practice 
and each new step up will be harder to obtain since it is completely 
dependent on exponential hardware growth.

So it won't run away in any terms that matter, but that fact won't mean 
much to you or I when it happens.

You may have noticed that monkeys currently cannot build machines 
larger than a=5 because of the aforementioned geometric resource 
complexity problem, and you can't do a whole lot at a=5.  Fortunately, 
it looks like you can do good universal approximations with a resource 
complexity that is merely exponential (roughly a^2), which puts "a" in 
the ballpark of the low 30s on modern monkey hardware, which is 
sufficiently complex that you can start doing very interesting things.  
Things like human language seem to be around a=24 level algorithm 
spaces.

I should add that I generally do not believe a genuine "hard take-off" 
is possible in the absence of proper general purpose MNT, and I think 
it currently looks like we'll have general purpose AI before we have 
general purpose MNT (obviously arguable).

j. andrew rogers



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