[FoRK] WSJ on Peak Oil (via jrobb)
jbone at place.org
Tue Sep 21 08:34:25 PDT 2004
Noticed on jrobb:
WSJ on peak oil. It should have spent more time with Simmons rather
than Campbell. In general, peak oil seems to be a technical model that
has value. The real debate is over when the peak will be. A major
aspect of peak oil that most people miss is that three major underlying
assumptions have changed (this could be a book in itself since their
addition makes peak oil nearly innevitable):
* Demand patterns. The act of bringing both China and India online
has accelerated demand for oil.
* Geopolitical risk. As we search for large deposits of oil to
exploit, we tend to find them in risky locations
(Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Venzuela, and the Caucuses).
Further, formerly safe locations (Iraq and Saudi
Arabia) don't look too safe anymore.
* Global Guerrillas. New methods of warfare that target oil
WSJ article (reg req'd)
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