[FoRK] WSJ on Peak Oil (via jrobb)

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Sep 21 08:34:25 PDT 2004


Noticed on jrobb:

	http://jrobb.mindplex.org/2004/09/21.html#a5417

  WSJ on peak oil.  It should have spent more time with Simmons rather 
than Campbell.  In general, peak oil seems to be a technical model that 
has value.  The real debate is over when the peak will be.  A major 
aspect of peak oil that most people miss is that three major underlying 
assumptions have changed (this could be a book in itself since their 
addition makes peak oil nearly innevitable):

     * Demand patterns.  The act of bringing both China and India online 
has accelerated demand for oil.
     * Geopolitical risk.  As we search for large deposits of oil to 
exploit, we tend to find them in risky locations
        (Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Venzuela, and the Caucuses).  
Further, formerly safe locations (Iraq and Saudi
        Arabia) don't look too safe anymore.
     * Global Guerrillas.  New methods of warfare that target oil 
production.

WSJ article (reg req'd)

	http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB109571753759322877,00.html



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