[FoRK] All caution to the wind... my call

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Nov 2 22:11:07 PST 2004


On Nov 3, 2004, at 12:54 AM, Lorin Rivers wrote:

> Lord, lord, lord I hope you're right, but at almost midnight CST I'm
> not seeing it...
>
> If Bush wins, I hope his supporters like the America they get after
> Bush picks 4 supreme court justices. Justice Thomas as a moderate.
> 10,000 Americans dead in the Middle East. 2006=1929?
>
> I'm depressed.
>
> Sieg Jesus!

Actually, there's not a single state divergent from my model yet.  
Nothing surprising yet.  But to be fair --- there's no fudge left at 
all.  My model has Kerry in IA, MI, MN, NM, OH, WA, and WI.  With Ohio 
looking iffy, that really puts a serious hurt in things.  There's a 
grand total of 87 Kerry-allocated electoral votes left in my model --- 
and 20 of those are Ohio.

I like NV for Bush, and that's it --- that plus a proportional vote of 
1 from ME brings him to the predicted 255.  But unless everything else 
goes to Kerry, turn out the lights --- the party's over.  Woops --- 
well, Kerry will get that slush vote, breaking news.  But he's got to 
carry the states above.  (Well, not exactly.  Kerry could swap my New 
Mexico call for by Bush / NV call --- but that's really it.)

There's still a 2-way 269 tie scenario, but of course that's a Bush 
fait accompli if it happens.

:-/

jb




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