[FoRK] All caution to the wind... my call
geege4 at bellsouth.net
Tue Nov 2 22:30:10 PST 2004
toasting zogby haiku
a hemlock cordial
chases the fizzy kool aid
cocktail gulped at noon.
From: fork-bounces at xent.com [mailto:fork-bounces at xent.com] On Behalf Of Jeff
Sent: Wednesday, November 03, 2004 1:11 AM
To: Lorin Rivers
Subject: Re: [FoRK] All caution to the wind... my call
On Nov 3, 2004, at 12:54 AM, Lorin Rivers wrote:
> Lord, lord, lord I hope you're right, but at almost midnight CST I'm
> not seeing it...
> If Bush wins, I hope his supporters like the America they get after
> Bush picks 4 supreme court justices. Justice Thomas as a moderate.
> 10,000 Americans dead in the Middle East. 2006=1929?
> I'm depressed.
> Sieg Jesus!
Actually, there's not a single state divergent from my model yet.
Nothing surprising yet. But to be fair --- there's no fudge left at
all. My model has Kerry in IA, MI, MN, NM, OH, WA, and WI. With Ohio
looking iffy, that really puts a serious hurt in things. There's a
grand total of 87 Kerry-allocated electoral votes left in my model ---
and 20 of those are Ohio.
I like NV for Bush, and that's it --- that plus a proportional vote of
1 from ME brings him to the predicted 255. But unless everything else
goes to Kerry, turn out the lights --- the party's over. Woops ---
well, Kerry will get that slush vote, breaking news. But he's got to
carry the states above. (Well, not exactly. Kerry could swap my New
Mexico call for by Bush / NV call --- but that's really it.)
There's still a 2-way 269 tie scenario, but of course that's a Bush
fait accompli if it happens.
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