[FoRK] All caution to the wind... my call

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Nov 2 23:05:09 PST 2004


On Nov 3, 2004, at 1:49 AM, Joseph S. Barrera III wrote:

> Jeff Bone wrote:
>
>>  This thing's just getting going.
>
> I have never wished so much before that you are right.

You can take that to the bank, almost regardless. ;-)

MSNBC's calling Ohio for Kerry, but CNN has just called Ohio "too close 
to call" and as the precincts report in --- 93% now --- Kerry's margin 
is tightening considerably.

Assume Kerry loses Ohio but takes the rest (and polling the state 
election results websites for the others right now, that looks very 
possible if not likely.)

So here's the score.  Starting from Bush:  249,  Kerry:  211, based on 
current CNN call.

States out / votes by candidate

K:
HI / 4	
IA / 7
MI / 17
MN / 10
NV / 5
NM / 5
WI / 10
----------
58
+ 211
= 269

B:
OH / 20
----------
20
+ 249
= 269

If we go to provisionals in Ohio, we won't know for at least 11 days.  
And now the guys in Iowa are "fatigued" and are knocking off for the 
night.

Time to go to bed, there's almost no likelihood that this is going to 
be decided tonight.

$0.02,

jb



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