[FoRK] You can fool some people sometimes...

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Fri Nov 5 08:27:56 PST 2004


	
Interesting (and timely) paper:

	http://www.arxiv.org/abs/math.ST/0410586

Discovered this via a very interesting math-themed blog called 
MathForge;  check it out if you're into that kind of thing:

	http://mathforge.net/

The blurb about the paper, from MathForge:

A statistical prediction of the U.S. election (and how to beat the 
stock market)
		
Topic: Statistics
Submitted by: jkauzlar (Tue, 02 Nov 04 at 11:23:15 PST)
Rosa Karapandza and Mike Bozovic of the University of Pompeu Fabra have 
discovered a new indicator to predict presidential election winners 
(the popular vote, as in the case of Al Gore) as well as stock 
performances. Their paper You Can Fool Some People Sometimes[10 pp, 
pdf] describes how the use of future tenses in presidential debates or 
10-K reports relates to the eventual performance of the candidate or 
company. Their theory states that the more the future tense is used, 
the more negatively it reflects. They don't explain why this seems to 
work, but in the case of 10-K reports (where a vastly greater amount of 
test data was available) it really does seem to work.

--

jb



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