[FoRK] Asteroid has chance of hitting Earth in 2029
jeff at k2.com
Sun Dec 26 14:30:47 PST 2004
As posted on the Lone Star Times . This has been pretty well
reported, and likely already posted on FoRK (sorry, didn't do the
search), but I got a laugh out of a couple of things. First, there's
the link to , which calculates the effects of impact for a given
object. And, of course, I was also very entertained by the comments
about an impact in Tehran.
> Asteroid has chance of hitting Earth in 2029
> Friday the 13th has an ominous meaning for some people. Friday, April
> 13, 2029 might have an ominious meaning for everyone. That's when
> a 1,300-foot asteroid known as 2004 MN4 could hit the Earth:
> NASA has issued its highest threat warning giving asteroid "2004 MN4"
> a rating of four on the 10-point Torino Scale used to rate
> intergalactic threats. The highest previous rating has been one.
> The Torino Scale was set up by the International Astronomical Union
> after concern at too many cases of "crying wolf", where potentially
> dangerous asteroids were later shown to pose no risk to Earth.
> Although the risk from 2004 MN4 was likely to be refined with further
> measurements, it had already been under observation for 187 days so
> astronomers were quite confident of their predictions.
> It should be noted that the most recent calculations show only a 2.2%
> probability of an impact. In other words, the odds are 45-to-1 that
> we'll be just fine.
> But just in case, you might want to ask the IRS for an extension on
> your 2028 tax return. No sense in going to the trouble if April 15
> isn't going to happen, right?
> Update: I did a few calculations to find out what would happen. Just
> for kicks, lets assume the point of impact is...oh, I don't know. How
> about Tehran:
> The asteroid would break up in the atmosphere, showering pieces over
> an area 3/5 of a mile wide by 4/5 of a mile long. The resulting crater
> would be more than 3.5 miles wide and nearly 1/3 of a mile deep. Here
> in Houston, no seismic activity would be felt. But in Tehran, the
> resulting overpressure from the shockwave would collapse multistory
> buildings for 25 miles in every direction, break windows 75 miles
> away, and effectively end the Islamic Revolution in the Tehran
> metropolitan area.
weblog <k2.com> pgp key <www.k2.com/keys.htm> aim <jkayk2>
share files with me -- get shinkuro -- <www.shinkuro.com>
"first get your facts, then you can distort them at your leisure" --
"if the person in the next lane at the stoplight rolls up the window
and locks the door, support their view of life by snarling at them" --
a biker's guide to life
"if A equals success, then the formula is A equals X plus Y plus Z. X
is work. Y is play. Z is keep your mouth shut." -- albert einstein
More information about the FoRK