[FoRK] Re: [IP] Mad Cow [...]
J. Andrew Rogers
andrew at ceruleansystems.com
Thu Jan 13 23:51:34 PST 2005
Owen Byrne wrote:
> My prediction a year from now big bump in the US dollar and big bump in
> the US unemployment rate.
I am seriously doubting this. The employment situation is as good as it has been since the
so-called "Internet Boom" -- make no mistake, the next boom cycle will be the *real*
Internet boom. Maybe it is myopia because I am in an envious position, but I'm seeing a lot
of nice deals happening. The VCs have finally gotten over getting burned on the backside of
the last bust. At least in Silicon Valley and in the New England corridor. The second half of
2004 was pretty darn good in The Valley, at least for companies that I'm involved in, and
2005 is already shaping up to easily dwarf the last half of 2004 just a couple weeks in.
Every boom cycle is different, and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. The US
dollar should bounce back; the fundamentals do not support its position (and it is at the
bottom of my predicted range from a couple years ago) and hardly anyone else is interested
in seeing it so low. It won't be "normal" until it buys at least 0.90 Euro. For all the talk of
government debt in the US, the major European economies behind the Euro have debt as bad
or worse and economies that are decidedly worse. As much as I would like to smack down
US government spending, it is not comparatively tragic.
Maybe I'm just a chronic optimist but I've been right more often than I've been wrong,
perhaps because I put the odds on what I think will actually happen rather than what I wish
would happen. The US economy, for better or worse, is in a fairly comfortable place right
now and clearly out of recession.
Bad economy or no, I'll still be traveling in Asia and Europe this year. Hell, I might even
spend a long weekend in Alberta -- all my Canadian currency is worth so much more, after
all. (I have a bad habit of never changing my currency back to US dollars, leaving me with
significant quantities of foreign currency in cash. All of which has appreciated in the last
j. andrew rogers
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