[FoRK] Re: [IP] Mad Cow [...]

J. Andrew Rogers andrew at ceruleansystems.com
Thu Jan 13 23:51:34 PST 2005


Owen Byrne wrote:
> My prediction a year from now  big bump in the US dollar and big bump in 
> the US unemployment rate.


I am seriously doubting this.  The employment situation is as good as it has been since the 
so-called "Internet Boom" -- make no mistake, the next boom cycle will be the *real* 
Internet boom.  Maybe it is myopia because I am in an envious position, but I'm seeing a lot 
of nice deals happening.  The VCs have finally gotten over getting burned on the backside of 
the last bust.  At least in Silicon Valley and in the New England corridor.  The second half of 
2004 was pretty darn good in The Valley, at least for companies that I'm involved in, and 
2005 is already shaping up to easily dwarf the last half of 2004 just a couple weeks in.

Every boom cycle is different, and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.  The US 
dollar should bounce back; the fundamentals do not support its position (and it is at the 
bottom of my predicted range from a couple years ago) and hardly anyone else is interested 
in seeing it so low.  It won't be "normal" until it buys at least 0.90 Euro.  For all the talk of 
government debt in the US, the major European economies behind the Euro have debt as bad 
or worse and economies that are decidedly worse.  As much as I would like to smack down 
US government spending, it is not comparatively tragic.

Maybe I'm just a chronic optimist but I've been right more often than I've been wrong, 
perhaps because I put the odds on what I think will actually happen rather than what I wish 
would happen.  The US economy, for better or worse, is in a fairly comfortable place right 
now and clearly out of recession.

Bad economy or no, I'll still be traveling in Asia and Europe this year.  Hell, I might even 
spend a long weekend in Alberta -- all my Canadian currency is worth so much more, after 
all.  (I have a bad habit of never changing my currency back to US dollars, leaving me with 
significant quantities of foreign currency in cash.  All of which has appreciated in the last 
couple years.)


cheers,

j. andrew rogers



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