[FoRK] What's that sound???
Mon Jul 25 17:56:39 PDT 2005
>>I remember Boston in 1982 to 1989, when [prices]
>>went up 25 percent a year for six years, and then in one year [they]
>>fell 87 percent.
Is this true? 87%, why is it I never hear about it?. Anyone got any articles
that talk about this one year 87 % drop?
On 7/25/05, Adam L Beberg <beberg at mithral.com> wrote:
> It's like a loud whooshing of air... must be a storm coming.
> Rent = 2k, value = 1.5M, that's only a multiple of 750. It should be in
> the range of 80-120, guess which one will adjust ;)
> I've been to DC, driven through parts, so who in their right mind would
> pay 1.5M (or even 300K) to live there??? It made the south side of
> ghettos of Chicago seem like Beverly Hills. An effect of being
> Congress's plaything of course.
> D.C. Area Housing Market Cools Off
> By Kirstin Downey and Sandra Fleishman
> Washington Post Staff Writers
> Mon Jul 25, 1:00 AM ET
> Washington area temperatures may be sizzling, but the once-torrid real
> estate market seems to be cooling off as houses stay on the market
> longer and the number of homes for sale rises.
> Home sales tend to slow in the summer, but the number of houses for sale
> in the Washington area has climbed by 50 percent in recent months. The
> available inventory has risen to about 35,300 homes, up from an average
> of about 23,000 in the past three years, according to Metropolitan
> Regional Information Systems Inc., which runs the local multiple-listing
> The average number of days a house stays on the market has crept up by
> two days in Fairfax County, to 16 days in June from 14 days a year
> earlier. In Montgomery County it has risen to 20 days from 18 days,
> according to MRIS. Those are, however, still short turnaround times by
> historic standards.
> Meanwhile, the number of houses sold in Northern Virginia's inner
> suburbs fell by 9.6 percent in June, compared with a year earlier. In
> the District, the number of houses sold dropped by 8 percent, while in
> Montgomery County they dropped about 1.6 percent.
> Local real estate brokers say they are seeing signs of a change.
> "The market has slowed for sure, especially at the high end," said Wes
> Foster, chairman of Long & Foster Real Estate Inc.
> Foster said the market is returning to "normalcy" after a frenzied era
> of multiple contracts, bidding wars and desperate buyers waiving their
> right to property inspections or appraisals.
> "It's very healthy," he said. "It worried the pure hell out of me the
> numbers we were seeing. I remember Boston in 1982 to 1989, when [prices]
> went up 25 percent a year for six years, and then in one year [they]
> fell 87 percent. The ride up for everybody selling was wonderful but the
> ride down was awful. . . . It was very painful and I don't want to see
> that here."
> Foster said the recent manic market has been fueled by what he called
> "crazy fools running around buying houses as investments," with "bad
> loans, interest-free loans."
> "They'll get hurt, and I think they should," as prices inevitably
> correct themselves, he said. A slowdown is needed because so many
> average people have been priced out of homes or compelled to pay high
> prices, he said.
> Real estate broker Susann H. Haskins of the Long & Foster office in
> Potomac, president of the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors,
> cautioned that the down-tick may simply be summer-related.
> "Is it a major shift? Not necessarily. . . . I don't think we should
> raise the red flags and send up the alarms yet. . . . We don't have
> enough data to definitively say the expansion has ended," she said.
> The Washington region remains strong, compared with other markets, said
> Ken Wenhold, regional director for Metrostudy, a housing research firm
> based in Houston. "Although the resale inventory and days on the market
> have increased slightly, it is still overall a very tight resale
> market," he said.
> Many area real estate agents said that good houses in good
> neighborhoods, realistically priced, still sell well and that sales are
> faster in less-expensive areas. In Prince William County and its largest
> cities, including Manassas and Manassas Park, the median price is
> $380,000 and sales rose 10.7 percent in June, compared with the year
> before. In Prince George's County, where the median sales price in June
> was $300,000, the number of sales rose 3 percent.
> "I still see prices rising and the market is very strong," said real
> estate broker Donald L. Frederick, with Re/Max International Inc. in
> Camp Springs, who cited Prince George's County's affordability as the
> reason for its strength at a time real estate agents from other areas
> said market activity "is way off."
> But in many of the region's inner suburbs, where prices have about
> doubled in four years, some sellers who expected results within days of
> posting a for-sale sign have been disappointed. Some are cutting their
> At the beginning of the year, buyers were frantically grabbing at
> anything. Now some have the time to pick and choose among neighborhoods,
> line up home inspections before buying and carefully consider the lofty
> prices they are paying.
> Computer consultant Will Gibson, 39, put his red-brick Bellevue Terrace
> duplex, just off Wisconsin Avenue in Northwest Washington, up for sale
> in the spring. His wife, Jeep, was hoping to move to the suburbs. Gibson
> listed it at $895,000, but it did not sell. After two months, he took it
> off the market and stored the for-sale sign in an upstairs hallway. He
> said he will try to sell it again "after we fix a few things up."
> Liza Potter, 31, who owns a townhouse in Burke, has been monitoring the
> market since March because she wants to move to a larger, single-family
> house. In March, she said, homes listed for sale on the Internet lasted
> two days. She often could not drive to them quickly enough to make a bid
> before they went under contract.
> Now, she said, attractive listings are lasting two weeks and the prices
> seem to be slightly lower. Two weeks ago, she and her husband, Darrell,
> 41, a computer specialist for the Defense Department, bought a house for
> $650,000 in a nearby neighborhood they had thought they could not
> afford. They now are listing their townhouse for sale at $439,000.
> "More houses are on the market, so people have a little more time to
> look around and see what else is out there," Potter said.
> Neighbors, for whom watching the home-sale market has been a favorite
> parlor pursuit, are noticing the slowdown, too. Dimetra Panagakos, 81,
> who lives next door to Gibson in Northwest Washington, chortled as she
> discussed the market.
> "They used to sell in a week, these houses here, but now no more," said
> Panagakos, who has lived in the neighborhood since 1948. "Ha, ha, ha,
> they went crazy in my neighborhood, my neighbor asked $900,000 -- and
> now no more."
> Some renters are also watching with interest. Sabrina Daly, 26, a
> research analyst who shares a $2,000-a-month rental house in Arlington's
> Lyon Park with two other young women, said the renovated bungalow next
> door went on the market three weeks ago for $1.5 million. It has not sold.
> "I'm surprised," she said. "Maybe people don't want to pay $1.5 million.
> Maybe they can't pay $1.5 million."
> In Falls Church, Josefina Villegas, 71, thought her house would sell in
> just a few days when she put it on the market in late June and that she
> would soon be winging her way, carefree, to visit her grandchildren in
> Houses in her woodsy neighborhood had been selling in the $900,000s, so
> she priced hers at $925,000 and waited for the bids to come in. She
> waited some more -- no bids. She dropped the price to $899,00. Three
> weeks later, still no bids.
> "I think houses are going slower now," she said, as she worried about
> getting the lawn mowed once again to keep up its pristine market-ready
> appearance. "Send me somebody to buy."
> Deborah Davenport, 50, listed her single-family house in Fairfax County
> last week at $569,000. Her husband, an echocardiographer who does heart
> ultrasounds, was offered his "dream job" with pediatric cardiologists in
> Tucson. In the past week, her home has been visited by just one set of
> prospective purchasers.
> "We haven't gotten any nibbles, unlike a month ago, when people put
> their houses on the market, and poof, they'd be gone," she said. "I
> figured it had to slow, it had to stabilize; but I hope it hasn't
> completely stalled -- for our sake."
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