[FoRK] Oil at $66.86

Matt Jensen mattj
Mon Aug 15 08:40:17 PDT 2005


Quoting Adam L Beberg <beberg at mithral.com>:

> Matt Jensen wrote on 8/12/2005 5:37 PM:
> > Does that mean he retrospectively picked the stocks *because* they were
> > volatile? ...
>
> You can look at the actual housing prices, specuative owning, or any
> other "real" measure and all the charts look the same

Housing prices are up, but *not* like his chart. His chart of 12 stocks shows a
1,300% gain in 5 years.  Housing prices nationally can't be up more than
perhaps 150-200% in that time, maximum.

I repeat, did he pick the (unnamed) stocks retrospectively?  If so, his comments
are worthless.


> since the stocks tanked, the housing has been going nuts.

Really? I need to keep up on the news more!

Sure there's speculation in housing.  What Mr. Stack was claiming was that
there's also speculation in housing-related stocks (company names and trading
volumes unspecified), and that a drop in the stocks will lead to a drop in
housing demand (reason unspecified).

One can make a good case that housing is a dangerous bubble (though even Stack
claims only that it will leak out, not pop).   But Stack's piece taints the
good case to be made.

-Matt Jensen
 http://mattjensen.com
 Seattle



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