[FoRK] Re: [>Htech] What are the odds of dying?
Dave Long <
dave.long at bluewin.ch
> on >
Thu Mar 16 02:56:26 PST 2006
US odds of death, mentioned on [>Htech]:
...which states that the odds of dying from (Operations of war and
sequelae) in 2002 were 1 in (14 million), for the entire US population.
Around that time period, among several other very poor ideas, I'd run
into the assertion that it would be safer to be in the US Army in Iraq
than to be living in Washington, DC. Maybe the proponents were looking
at a similar table?
With the benefit of hindsight, we find about 800 deaths per year out of
a subpopulation of 150 000, for a rate of 1 in 190. Assuming domestic
accident rates for 2005 to be similar to the 1 in 1800 figure for 2002,
the rough result is that one is almost 10 times more likely to die
while serving in Iraq than to die of an accident back home.
Combine that figure with a 20k sign-on bonus, and one gets an estimate
for risk-aversion: each additional percent increase in likelihood of
death is worth around 20 USD -- 1 atm token.
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