[FoRK] Re: [>Htech] What are the odds of dying?

Stephen D. Williams < sdw at lig.net > on > Thu Mar 16 09:39:09 PST 2006

1 in 1800 die in an accident per year?  Higher than I would have thought.

The odds varied over age group and generation period would be very 
This would be the way to show it:
Live at:


Dave Long wrote:

> US odds of death, mentioned on [>Htech]:
>> http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
> ...which states that the odds of dying from (Operations of war and 
> sequelae) in 2002 were 1 in (14 million), for the entire US population.
> Around that time period, among several other very poor ideas, I'd run 
> into the assertion that it would be safer to be in the US Army in Iraq 
> than to be living in Washington, DC.  Maybe the proponents were 
> looking at a similar table?
> With the benefit of hindsight, we find about 800 deaths per year out 
> of a subpopulation of 150 000, for a rate of 1 in 190.  Assuming 
> domestic accident rates for 2005 to be similar to the 1 in 1800 figure 
> for 2002, the rough result is that one is almost 10 times more likely 
> to die while serving in Iraq than to die of an accident back home.
> Combine that figure with a 20k sign-on bonus, and one gets an estimate 
> for risk-aversion: each additional percent increase in likelihood of 
> death is worth around 20 USD -- 1 atm token.
> -Dave
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