[FoRK] Re: [>Htech] What are the odds of dying?
Stephen D. Williams <
sdw at lig.net
> on >
Thu Mar 16 09:39:09 PST 2006
1 in 1800 die in an accident per year? Higher than I would have thought.
The odds varied over age group and generation period would be very
This would be the way to show it:
Dave Long wrote:
> US odds of death, mentioned on [>Htech]:
> ...which states that the odds of dying from (Operations of war and
> sequelae) in 2002 were 1 in (14 million), for the entire US population.
> Around that time period, among several other very poor ideas, I'd run
> into the assertion that it would be safer to be in the US Army in Iraq
> than to be living in Washington, DC. Maybe the proponents were
> looking at a similar table?
> With the benefit of hindsight, we find about 800 deaths per year out
> of a subpopulation of 150 000, for a rate of 1 in 190. Assuming
> domestic accident rates for 2005 to be similar to the 1 in 1800 figure
> for 2002, the rough result is that one is almost 10 times more likely
> to die while serving in Iraq than to die of an accident back home.
> Combine that figure with a 20k sign-on bonus, and one gets an estimate
> for risk-aversion: each additional percent increase in likelihood of
> death is worth around 20 USD -- 1 atm token.
> FoRK mailing list
swilliams at hpti.com http://www.hpti.com Per: sdw at lig.net http://sdw.st
Stephen D. Williams 703-724-0118W 703-995-0407Fax 20147-4622 AIM: sdw
More information about the FoRK