[FoRK] Inkling: roll-your-own prediction markets
Jeff Bone <
jbone at place.org
> on >
Fri Sep 15 22:06:39 PDT 2006
Interesting new service:
"Inkling is an online service for individuals and organizations to
create and manage their own prediction markets."
I'm not sure what to think of this. It seems obvious that the
quality of prediction obtained by prediction markets is proportional
to the number of participants; by being a "meta-prediction market"
and encouraging smaller groups to roll-their-own using the meta-
service, it would seem that this would encourage fragmentation and
thus negatively impact the usefulness of the very thing they're
offering, creating "prediction-arb" opportunities, etc.
Still, rather cool. An interesting example of what I'm coming to
think of as "Web 2.5" for lack of a better term: businesses and Web
services that actually recognize and embrace the sort of "Cluetrain
Manifesto" / Wiki-esque / Wisdom Of Crowds sort of thing. (Other
interesting bits today: came across fine-grained programming market
http://www.scriptlance.com today. I think whoever figures out how to
eBay crowdsourcing technical work effectively is going to make a mint
and really radically change the "local" rate of technological
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