[FoRK] Inkling: roll-your-own prediction markets

Jeff Bone < jbone at place.org > on > Fri Sep 15 22:06:39 PDT 2006

Interesting new service:

	http://www.inklingmarkets.com/

"Inkling is an online service for individuals and organizations to  
create and manage their own prediction markets."

--

I'm not sure what to think of this.  It seems obvious that the  
quality of prediction obtained by prediction markets is proportional  
to the number of participants;  by being a "meta-prediction market"  
and encouraging smaller groups to roll-their-own using the meta- 
service, it would seem that this would encourage fragmentation and  
thus negatively impact the usefulness of the very thing they're  
offering, creating "prediction-arb" opportunities, etc.

Still, rather cool.  An interesting example of what I'm coming to  
think of as "Web 2.5" for lack of a better term:  businesses and Web  
services that actually recognize and embrace the sort of "Cluetrain  
Manifesto" / Wiki-esque / Wisdom Of Crowds sort of thing.  (Other  
interesting bits today:  came across fine-grained programming market  
http://www.scriptlance.com today.  I think whoever figures out how to  
eBay crowdsourcing technical work effectively is going to make a mint  
and really radically change the "local" rate of technological  
innovation.)

$0.02,

jb



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