[FoRK] Inkling: roll-your-own prediction markets

Jeff Bone < jbone at place.org > on > Fri Sep 15 22:06:39 PDT 2006

Interesting new service:


"Inkling is an online service for individuals and organizations to  
create and manage their own prediction markets."


I'm not sure what to think of this.  It seems obvious that the  
quality of prediction obtained by prediction markets is proportional  
to the number of participants;  by being a "meta-prediction market"  
and encouraging smaller groups to roll-their-own using the meta- 
service, it would seem that this would encourage fragmentation and  
thus negatively impact the usefulness of the very thing they're  
offering, creating "prediction-arb" opportunities, etc.

Still, rather cool.  An interesting example of what I'm coming to  
think of as "Web 2.5" for lack of a better term:  businesses and Web  
services that actually recognize and embrace the sort of "Cluetrain  
Manifesto" / Wiki-esque / Wisdom Of Crowds sort of thing.  (Other  
interesting bits today:  came across fine-grained programming market  
http://www.scriptlance.com today.  I think whoever figures out how to  
eBay crowdsourcing technical work effectively is going to make a mint  
and really radically change the "local" rate of technological  



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