[FoRK] Inkling: roll-your-own prediction markets

Albert S. < albert.scherbinsky at rogers.com > on > Fri Sep 22 17:46:21 PDT 2006

Interesting, thanks for the link.

Here's one thought on fragmentation. You might expect
the same phenomenon to occur on the stock market where
there are sometimes multiple ETFs that represent the
same market sector. However, what I have noticed is
that one of the ETFs usually ends up getting traded
more than the others. People gravitate to the higher
volume(more liquid) market.


>  by being a
> "meta-prediction market"  
> and encouraging smaller groups to roll-their-own
> using the meta- 
> service, it would seem that this would encourage
> fragmentation and  
> thus negatively impact the usefulness of the very
> thing they're  
> offering, creating "prediction-arb" opportunities,
> etc.

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