[FoRK] invasion was much better than Cats lets do it again and again

Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> on Thu May 24 08:39:19 PDT 2007

So despite having railed about the neo-cons for quite some time now,  
and sent along just about every half-assed hypothesis I've come  
across about what's really going on with our foreign policy, in the  
last couple of weeks it's finally all become clear to me.  Here's  
what Iraq is *not* and was *never* about:

   (1) "capturing" the oil to get it for our own use
   (2) any sort of war on "terror" (indeed, has the opposite effect)
   (3) revenge for the Bush clan
   (4) Rummy and Cheney cleaning up a leftover mess
   (5) establishing democracy in the Middle East
   (6) WMDs, whether leftovers / the Islamic Bomb / Broken Arrow / etc.
   (7) establishing a strategic beachhead / getting bases out of  
Saudi Arabia
   (8) any of the other du jour theories

It is actually very simple;  it's subtle but, in hindsight, perfectly  
obvious.  It's a fight-on-the-right;  a power struggle between two  
factions of our (US) "conservative" wing, with two initially  
overlapping but ultimately divergent agendas.  (Weirdly, both of  
these ultimately incompatible agendas ground out in Cheney, who has  
actually been constructing the almost-perfect geopolitical and  
financial hedge for almost his entire career.)

Side One:  the neo-cons + Pentagon.  MEANS:  creation of a *new* and  
more controllable (than loose-cannon Saddam) puppet authoritarian  
state tightly bound with a permanent free-market / private-sector  
oriented constitution.  MOTIVE:  privatize the Iraq oil fields, get  
them out of OPEC, and bust OPEC / the Saudis.  Strengthen the dollar  
and get the Saudi debt-noose off of our necks.  Recover US economic  
hegemony, and *hang onto it this time.*  OPPORTUNITY:  fear created  
by 9-11.  They had the upper hand early in this fight, but caught the  
backlash from...

Side Two:  Big Oil + State Department Bakerites + Saudis + Big  
Construction.  The *last* thing they want is private companies in  
control of the second-largest low-viscosity oil fields in the world.   
The Saudis want to keep control of oil production;  they want to keep  
racking up US debt;  and they'd like to see a middle-of-the-road to  
slightly-devalued (strategic move --- prevent further foreign  
investment by US / dollar-based interests) dollar.  Baker / Bush, and  
to a lesser degree Cheney, are the House of Saud's men-on-the- 
ground.  MEANS:  eliminate wild-card Saddam, install more  
controllable puppet authoritarian regime, but MOST OF ALL keep a  
state-controlled monopoly ownership of the fields that will heed  
OPEC's ridiculously-low historical production quotas.  MOTIVE:  keep  
oil prices high, and everybody's happy;  Big Oil makes MORE money  
when oil is higher;  Saudis are happy;  OPEC continues to price-fix;   
juicy reconstruction and security contracts for the favored ones;   
etc. etc.  OPPORTUNITY:  same as above.

Ask yourself about all the maneuvering in the provisional authority,  
etc.  Apply Ockham.  It's the simplest solution with the fewest  
number of entities / interests / agendas --- indeed, there's really  
one one primary issue at stake.  Opportunity presented, the initial  
steps were identical for two different agendas, and the task was  
undertaken;  but when things got to a certain point, divergence was  
inevitable.  And hence we've been stuck for 3 years.

But none of this is new.  The same thing has, essentially, been going  
on in Iraq since its independence in 1932 --- or even before.  It's  
ALWAYS been about keeping Iraq's oil in the ground and off the market  
and controlled by somebody who will do exactly that.  The neo-con  
agenda's the first significant deviation from that agenda by any real  
power players - ever.

Ironically, of the two, I find the neo-con position more attractive.

:-/

As for Iran --- well, there the threat / motivation / etc. may be  
closer to what it prima facie appears to be.  Dunno;  not enough data  
yet.

jb



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