[FoRK] Black Belt Bayesian vs. Authority, Fight!

Lion Kimbro <lionkimbro at gmail.com> on Fri Aug 10 12:31:58 PDT 2007

> Maybe you are very good at explaining this to people. However, there's
> been tons of research in the last twenty years showing the poor
> reasoning, logic, and intuition most people.  This is one example.

  Yep;

  The problem here is in how the facts are presented.

  (Or perhaps they only had a few moments to answer?
   Maybe in a hurry to get out the door quickly?)


  If you instead draw a diagram that looks something like this:


  (monotype font required)

    1%         99%
   +-------------------------
   |l@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
   |l@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
   |l@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
   |l@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@9.6
   |l           \
   |l            \
   |l             .095
   |l
   |l--  .008
.80|l
   |
   |

  (Drawing not to scale, ...)


  ...and then ask the same question,...

  ...I think that you'll find more people answering correctly.


> However, there's
> been tons of research in the last twenty years showing the poor
> reasoning, logic, and intuition most people.  This is one example.

  I think that the world is big and confusing, and there is lots of
  active camouflage at work, intentional and unintentional.

  I think people are smarter than they think they are,
  and I think people are dumber than they think they are.
  To disambiguate, I'd have to hear more about what the question
  is, or what is being stated.

  Mountains of evidence can quickly be mis-interpreted, as a heap.
  And if you have a conclusion that you want to reach, it's easy
  to pull bits of evidence from here and there, in order to support
  the conclusion.

  Personally, I remain optimistic about humanity.


  ---

> Matt Jensen
> http://mattjensen.com
> Seattle

  If you'd like to talk tomorrow;
  I'll be at the Seattle Saturday House, ~1PM.

    707 23rd Ave. E. 98112   (Capitol Hill)

  Lots of geeks meet to talk and work on things there.
  http://www.communitywiki.org/odd/House/HomePage
  http://www.communitywiki.org/odd/House/SeattleParticipants


  Take care,
    Lion {:)}=

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